Dynamic of February election changes as Jan Topic joins presidential race in 17-candidate field

Aug 19, 2024 | 0 comments

Overnight, the outlook for Ecuador’s February presidential election race has changed. That’s the assessment of political analysts Sunday morning after Jan Topic announced his candidacy on the Sociedad Unida Más Acción party (SUMA) ticket late Saturday. “A week ago, it appeared we would see a rematch of last year’s runoff election between [President Daniel] Noboa and Luisa Gonazlez of the Correista movement, and this morning Jan Topic is the president’s biggest challenger,” says Rolando Vargas, radio commentator and University of Guayaquil political science lecturer.

SUMA presidential candidate Jan Topic

In comments Saturday, Topic said he has had a “change of heart” since late May, when he rejected the Social Christian party’s invitation to be their candidate. At the time, Topic said that politics in Ecuador were “dirty, out of control and dangerous” and he did not want to subject his family to the “mud bath” of a campaign.

“I changed my mind because of the magnitude of the crises the country faces and because I saw no one coming forward to challenge the current government with concrete solutions,” he said. “I was hearing the same old platitudes based on narrow political and personal interests that will not solve our problems.”

The other big story Saturday, the last day political organizations could name a presidential ticket, was the large number of candidates – 17. Although most candidates had been identified earlier, five more, including Topic, were announced just before the deadline.

In addition to Noboa, González and Topic, other strong presidential candidates in the February 9 election, according to Vargas, are Leonidas Iza (Pachakutik), Henry Kronfle (Social Christians), Henry Cucalón (Constrye), Carlos Rabascall (Democratic Left), and Iván Saquicela (Democracy Yes). “With so many candidates, it will be hard for anyone except those who currently enjoy high visibility to gain traction with voters,” Vargas says. “This is a shame because I’m sure some of the others have good proposals.”

According to Quito political columnist Santiago Basabe, Topic’s decision to join the race was not entirely unexpected. “In May, when he turned down the Social Christian candidacy offer and said he was swearing off politics, I thought it was mostly a rejection of the Social Christians and particularly the dominance of Jaime Nebot,” Basabe says. “He didn’t want to be under the thumb of a political kingpin, and he also wanted to move to the left of traditional Social Christian positions.”

Basabe calls Topic is a “very attractive” candidate. “He has a strong personality that people gravitate to, he’s good-looking, he’s a fresh face, and he has dual citizenship [Ecuadorian-French] which seems to impress voters,” Basabe says. “Politically, he supports a strong hand against organized crime but criticizes Noboa for not attacking the economic and social problems that lead young men on the coast to join the gangs.”

Basabe continues: “Yes, I believe he was honest in pointing out the corruption and dirtiness of politics, but I think his decision then had political reasons as well,”

Basabe agrees with Vargas that Topic will be Noboa’s biggest challenger but believes Citizens Revolution’s González will also be in the fight for the runoff. “The April polls that showed Topic second to Noboa were conducted before RC had a candidate, although it was assumed it would be either González or Andres Arauz. Now that González is official, the numbers will tighten.”

These are the 17 presidential tickets that have qualified for the February 9, 2025 election:

National Democratic Action (ADN) #7
President, Daniel Noboa, Vice President, María José Pinto

Citizens’ Revolution (RC) #5
President, Luisa González, Vice President, Diego Borja

Pachakutik #18
President, Leonidas Iza, Vice President, Katiuska Molina

Sociedad Unida Más Acción (Suma) #23
President, Jan Topic, Vice President, María Cristina Calderón

Social Christian Party (PSC) # 6
President, Henry Kronfle Vice President, Dallyana Passailaigue

Democratic Center #1
President, José Serrano, Vice President, Ana Cristina Bernal

Construye #25
President, Henry Cucalón, Vice President, Carla Larrea

Democratic Left – #12
President, Carlos Rabascall, Vice President, Alejandra Rivas

Patriotic Society (PSP) #3
President, Andrea González, Vice President, Galo Moncayo

Popular Unity #2
President, Jorge Escala, Vice President, Pacha Terán

People Equality Democracy (PID) #4
President, Víctor Araus, Vice President, Cristina Carrera