Rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña stresses communities and agriculture in South America

By Juana Casas

Latin American nations must be on high alert as the weather phenomenon known as El Niño rapidly switches over to La Niña, experts said on Thursday, leaving populations and crops little time to recover.

A fisherman stands on the shore of the Magdalena River, the longest and most important river in Colombia, in March in the city of Honda.

El Niño and its usually abundant rains could soon turn into droughts caused by La Niña as well as an intense hurricane season across South America, experts said at a panel organized by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

FAO pointed out that the two systems often behave unpredictably, noting that the fading El Niño produced less rain than expected in much of South America and unseasonably dry conditions in countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.

The full weather pattern involving El Niño, La Niña and a neutral phase typically lasts between two to seven years. But experts said that the transition period from El Niño to La Niña is getting shorter.

“We just saw it happen,” said Yolanda Gonzalez, director of the International Research Center for the El Niño Phenomenon. “A year ago we came out of a Niña, and in March there were already signs of a Niño.”

“Now in March, April there are signs of a Niña,” she added. “We haven’t been able to recover from the impact.”
In South America, the weather patterns can hit key crops such as coffee, wheat and corn, denting commodity-dependent economies.

The phenomenon is not caused by climate change, FAO’s technical team said, but experts have seen that the effects of the weather pattern, such as rainfall, heat waves and drought, have become more extreme.

The rapid transitions between El Niño and La Niña could also be correlated with climate change, FAO said, though scientists have yet to establish definitive causation.

“These abrupt changes, and the fact that these cycles are now almost overlapping, ultimately decreases the ability to adapt to the changes,” said Marion Khamis, FAO’s regional risk management specialist. “This implies a huge challenge.”

Khamis continues: “Today, in northwestern South America, especially Colombia and Ecuador, we are seeing emergencies where lack of rainfall is affecting drinking water supplies and water to power the region’s hydroelectric facilities.
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Credit: US News