Final presidential election polls show Daniel Noboa ahead but Luisa González is gaining

Citizens Revolution presidential candidate Luisa González has cut into Daniel Noboa’s lead in most polls before the October 15 presidential runoff election and has moved into the lead in one.

Daniel Noboa on the campaign trail.

By rule of the National Electoral Council, Thursday was the last day polls were allowed to post results prior to the election.

In the Comunicaliza poll, Noboa held a 53.28% to 46.72% advantage over González among likely voters, a drop of three points from the previous poll.

Cedatos showed Noboa with a 56.1% to 43.9% lead in its first election poll.

The Telcodata Research poll gave Noboa a 3% lead, down from 5% three weeks ago, while the Maluk poll had González in front 47.6% to 45.5%, the opposite result from the previous poll.

Unlike the other polls, Maluk did not require respondents to make a decision between González and Noboa, offering an “undecided” option, which 6.9% chose.

Álvaro Marchante, director of Comunicaliza, said he expects a substantial “nulo” vote, meaning neither of the candidates. “Looking at the averages of all the polling, I expect a 6% to 7% no vote,” he said. “That number is higher today but it typically drops when voters are marking their ballots.”

He added that many voters still consider themselves undecided but most, he believes, will vote for Noboa. “The data has been consistent since the first election that the undecideds are breaking two-to-one for Noboa when they are forced to choose.”

According to Polibio Córdova of Cedatos, the debate between González and Noboa had little impact on voters. “Most voters considered it even in terms of who won,” he said. “González’s improvement was expected by many of us since large leads tend to tighten in the final counting. I expect the final result to be closer that what the polls show today.”

Córdova agrees with Marchante that most undecided voters will vote for Noboa on election day.