Despite limited success of ‘Plan Fenix’, Noboa pledges to keep fight against organized crime his top priority

Days before the election, President Daniel Noboa is sticking to his guns in making the “battle against terrorism” his top priority. On Monday, the president sent a proposed constitutional change to the Constitutional Court that would make it easier for judges to keep criminal suspects in jail until they go to trial. “Because of vague language in the constitution, too many gang members are allowed to go free until their trial date and many of them commit more crimes while they are on the street and don’t show up for trial,” Noboa said in a Tuesday interview.”

According to a new poll, President Daniel Noboa’s popularity has dropped almost 30% since January.

He added: “Once they are arrested, pre-trial detention for terrorists should be mandatory.”

In his recent campaign stops, Noboa is also pushing his plan to allow U.S. military personnel on Ecuadorian soil for the purpose of helping combat the illegal drug trade. He claims to have a “verbal understanding” with officials of the new U.S. administration for increased U.S. funding to combat drug trafficking.

Despite only modest success of his “Plan Fenix” anti-crime campaign — some of his presidential opponents call it a “total failure” — polls show Ecuadorians agree with Noboa that crime is the country’s biggest problem and see him as the best choice for defeating it.

The average of the last polls taken before the election give Noboa a 5.5% lead over his closest rival, Citizens Revolution’s Luisa González.

Noboa’s frontrunner status is a stark reversal from two months ago, when his reelection chances looked bleak. Political analysts note that his support was collapsing in November and early December as a result of electric blackouts, some as long as 14 hours a day, and [Luisa] González seemed headed for victory. Then, in late December, the rains came, ending the drought and repowering the country’s hydroelectric plants, and ending blackouts.

“Just as the assassination of [Fernando] Villavicencio propelled him to victory in 2022, the end of the blackouts changed Noboa’s fortunes in December,” says media commentator Milton Dávalos. “If the drought and blackouts had continued, he would have no chance in the election. What a difference two months make.”

Although some polls suggest Noboa could win outright in Sunday’s election, Dávalos believes there will be a runoff. “Luisa has strong support and some of the down-ballot candidates have shown strength in recent days, and this will probably prevent a first-round victory.”

Dávalos cautions that Ecuador polls are historically unreliable. “In recent elections, we’ve seen as much as a 7% difference in the projections and final outcome,” he said.