It’s Correismo vs. anti-Correismo –again– in Sunday’s election but this time could be different

“For the third election in row, this one will be a referendum on Rafael Correa,” says former presidential candidate Henry Cucalón, analyzing Sunday’s presidential runoff election. “He casts a long shadow that, unfortunately, obscures many other, more important issues.”

Election workers will be counting votes Sunday night in the presidential runoff election.

According to Cucalón and other election analysts, Correa and his legacy tend to dominate Ecuador’s political landscape. “Not only does his personality deflect debate from critical subjects but it is not fair to Luisa Gonzalez, who has her own ideas and has moved away from many of Correa’s positions,” Cucalón. “The voters, obviously, will decide if she is her own person or if she is Rafael’s puppet.”

Former campaign consultant Carolina Jaramillo believes that González has the advantage going into the election but says she had the advantage in the last election against Daniel Noboa in 2023. “Like the election with [Andres] Arauz against [Guillermo] Lasso two years earlier, most of the projections were that she would win, but she didn’t,” Jaramillo said. “It was the classic case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. And it could happen again.”

According to Jaramillo, there is a “hardcore” of voters who will never vote for a candidate supported by Correa, just as there is an equal number who will always vote for the Citizens Revolution candidate. “I believe it is 30% on each side and then there are the marginal voters inclined to one side or the other.”

Like Cucalón, she believes the “obsession” with Correa limits the discussion of serious issues. “We are at war with criminal gangs,” Jaramillo says. “We are in an economic crisis in which people can’t find good jobs and the government cannot cover its obligations. And yet, when voters enter the polling station, many of them are voting for or against Rafael Correa. It’s very, very regrettable.”

Political analyst and media commentator Paolo Moncagatta agrees that the “Rafael Correa factor” will play a key role in the election but says this time could be different.

“It is true many people will again vote along pro- and anti-Correa lines but there is a big difference from the previous two elections,” Moncagatta says. “With Lasso and the first Noboa election, the anti-Correa candidates had no track record. They came in with a clean record, so to speak. This time, however, Noboa has a track record. Voters can judge him on his campaign against the drug gangs, how he handled the energy crisis, as well as other matters. Voters have more to consider this time.”