Noboa and González campaigns court losing candidates for support in April runoff election

With only 18,000 votes separating them – or less than a quarter of one percent — the campaigns of President Daniel Noboa and Citizens Revolutions’ Luisa González have spent much of the last week courting defeated candidates for support in the April 13 runoff election.

Pachakutik presidential candidate Leonidas Iza

“With the election so close, there is limited room for González and Noboa to maneuver ahead of the runoff,” says former National Assemblyman Eduardo Alfonso Toledo. “The third and fourth place candidates and their parties have so far refused to make an endorsement and even if they do, past endorsements have not been particularly persuasive in runoff campaigns.”

Although it is expected González will pick up most of the votes of third-place finisher Leonidas Iza of the Pachakutik, Toledo says 35% to 40% of Iza’s support will probably go to Noboa. “Iza has been busy arguing with Rafael Correa on social media this week, which illustrates the grievances Pachakutik and indigenous movements have with Citizens Revolution and Correismo.”

In a Saturday radio interview, Iza said his followers “will never forgive” Correa’s support of oil drilling and mining on indigenous lands. “He lied to us about Yasuni and we all remember him calling out his military goons in 2015 to bash in the heads of our people,” Iza said. On Wednesday, Correa had accused of Iza of swinging the 2021 presidential election to Guillermo Lasso.

Third-place finisher Andrea González announced Thursday she will support neither Noboa or Luisa González, but Toledo expects most of her supporters to vote for Noboa April 13 based on her strong anti-Correista position. Like Iza, she accused both candidates of supporting “destructive and divisive” mining and oil projects in violation of the 2008 constitution.

Of the 14 candidates defeated candidates in the February 9 election, only two have endorsed either of the frontrunners. Carlos Rabascall, former Citizens Revolution vice presidential candidate, asked his supporters to vote for Luisa González and Henry Kronfle ,“holding his nose,” endorsed Noboa.

Political commentator Pablo Rosales believes another factor could be decisive in the runoff. “It is very important to court voters of the losing candidates, but much larger groups of voters could decide whether Noboa is reelected or is replaced by González,” he said on Ecuavisa Friday.

“Past runoffs have proven that many of those who voted nulo or submitted blank ballots last week could vote in two months,” Rosales said. “And then, there’s the even larger group, about 13% of eligible voters, who didn’t even bother to show up at the polls. These two groups constitute much larger numbers than all the defeated candidates combined, and we may be surprised how many of them decide to vote in the runoff.”