Some say Noboa could face a challenge from the right while others predict a new leftist movement

Former and possible future presidential candidate Jan Topic claims that President Daniel Noboa recent referendum was an “unnecessary sham” and says the result are not a true reflection of the president’s popularity. “Almost everyone supports the questions that passed and these should have been enacted by the National Assembly and not sent to an expensive national vote,” Topic says.

Jan Topic

During an interview on the Radio Pichincha program Otro Relato, Topic predicted that in next year’s election Noboa will face strong opposition from a centrist or center-right candidate. “I think he is vulnerable in several areas and that voters will be open to other ideas, especially about how to confront criminal gangs. They are also desperate for plans to rejuvenate the economy and create good jobs, and the president doesn’t talk about this.”

As evidence of Noboa’s weakness, Topic noted that a record number of Ecuadorians did not show up to vote in the referendum. “If a third of the population doesn’t care about the consultation, how can that mean you’re winning?” he asked.

Topic, who says that most of Noboa’s anti-crime measures are “not tough enough,” claims the government is exaggerating its success in confronting drug traffickers. “It is true that murders have fallen, but look at the assassinations and gangland killings over the last month,” he says. “Obviously, something isn’t working.

Topic and a second Otro Relato guest, Gustavo Ramos, agree the coming election campaign will feature a highly fragmented political scenario. “Even though we are only months away, figuring out what to expect is very difficult,” Ramos said. “The Correistas have suffered serious damage from corruption revelations from the Metastasis and Purga cases even though many of the claims are yet to be proven. And comments by [Rafael] Correa appearing to support drug traffickers are not helpful to the movement.”

Ramos, who served in three positions in the Correa government, agrees with Topic that a center-right candidate could pose a serious threat to Noboa. On the other hand, he believes a Correista candidate will be the biggest challenge. “Despite the party’s setbacks, Citizens Revolution still has the best political organization in the country and I don’t see that changing before the next election. The big question at this point is whether Noboa can win in the first election and avoid a runoff.” He adds: “We’re still several months from that and, as we’ve seen over the last year, anything can happen.”

Ramos predicts that a new leftist or center-leftist movement will form after the next election. “This is already starting, as is clear on social media discussions, and if Citizens Revolution loses another presidential election it will accelerate,” he says. “Many in the organization understand that Correa has become a political albatross and that the party has become a personality cult for one man who is not even in the country. A consensus is growing that it is time for a change.”