What does the U.S. election mean for Ecuador?

Political observers agree that the outcome of the U.S. mid-term elections will affect U.S.-Ecuador relations, but they say changes will probably come slowly. “The Democratic takeover of Congress will have an immediate impact in the U.S. as Donald Trump loses his power base,” says Gustavo Parra, former deputy government minister. “It is an open question, however, how it will affect foreign policy in such areas as military assistance, trade and humanitarian aid.”

Will the results of the U.S. mid-term elections prompt President Daniel Noboa to reevaluate his relationship with Donald Trump?

Under U.S. law, the president controls foreign policy and has broad discretion in making decisions, Parra says. “The limitation to his power is that Congress controls the budget and some Democratic Congressmen are already talking about restricting funding for the war in Iran and the Shield of the Americas operation, which Ecuador is part of.”

“There is also talk that the new Congress will restore funding for the USAID [United States Agency for International Development], which would provide money for health, education and other social programs,” Parra says. “The Republican Congress reduced or eliminated most of this.”

Santiago Carranco, dean of the School of International Relations at the Institute of Higher National Studies, does not expect an “immediate and dramatic impact” on Ecuador’s relationship with the U.S. “The relationship is mostly military today, involving the so-called war on drugs, and I expect this to continue unchanged at least into early 2027, since Trump has control over the program.”

After that, Carranco says, there could be significant changes if Trump and the Democrats find common ground. “From what I understand, the Democrats are planning investigations into military actions not only in Iran but in Latin America, and this could force Trump to change course,” he says. “One of the issues they mention is the bombing of suspected drug boats, including some in Ecuador, and this could affect the military alliance with Ecuador, Colombia and Peru.”

Carranco cautions, however, that any change of military policies could be months away. “The new U.S. Congress will be focused first on domestic issues and possibly Iran war funding.”

Like Parra, Carranco says the Congress could increase international funding for environmental, education and health programs that were cut by the Republican Congress. “Again, any benefit for Ecuador would be months down the road.”

Francisco Carrión, former Ecuador ambassador to Washington, suggests that any changes in U.S. policy will “trickle down” to Ecuador and other Latin American countries. “Trump is still president and still dictates many of the terms, but his power has been greatly reduced by the election.,” he says. “When he had control of both houses of Congress, he could do whatever he wanted. That has changed and I believe he will be forced to back off of some of his extreme right-wing objectives and cooperate to some extent with the Democrats.”

Carrión says that military operations of the Shield of the Americas could be reduced by the new Congress. “The Democrats object to the military tactics of the anti-drug program. This could affect Ecuador and [President Daniel] Noboa’s fight against the drug gangs.”

He adds that congressional investigations into the Shield of the Americas will focus on human rights abuses. “A lot of people, including Ecuadorians, have died in the ship bombings and neither the U.S. or Ecuador have provided justificatoin.”

Noboa should pay close attention to the U.S. election, Parra suggests. “This was a repudiation of some of the iron fist approaches Noboa has adopted in Ecuador, especially the militarization of law enforcement.”

“Like Trump, Noboa’s polling numbers are negative,” says Parra. “While Ecuadorians favor a strong hand against the gangs and cartels, they say this should not come at the expense of human liberties. They also say, overwhelmingly, that the current strategy against crime is not working, even with U.S. assistance.”

Parra adds: “Noboa has allied himself closely with Donald Trump, not just on security matters but on social issues as well, and I suggest it is time he reevaluates that alliance.”