Noboa and Luisa González maintain their lead in post-debate polls; National Assembly is up for grabs

Three election polls show little change at the top of the presidential race following last week’s debate. In the average of the Comunicaliza, Informe Confidencial and Cedatos polls, President Daniel Noboa continues to hold a 4.5% lead over Luisa González.

Andrea González enjoyed the largest gain in post-debate polling although she still lags far behind leaders President Daniel Noboa and Luisa González.

The new polls, however, indicate a tightening race for control of the National Assembly, with Noboa’s National Democratic Action party surging to a small lead over the Correista Citizens Revolution.

The poll confirms analysts’ assessment that Patriotic Society’s Andrea González was the overall winner of the debate, as her support grew from less than one percent to 4.2%, overtaking Pachakutik’s Leonidas Iza (1.8%) for third place.

In the likely case of a runoff election, the poll average gives Noboa a 5% lead over Luisa González.

In the race for National Assembly, the poll average shows National Democratic Action leading Citizens Revolution by a statistically insignificant 32% to 29.5%. Based on the averages, ADN and RC could each win more than 50 seats in the new Assembly, which grows from 137 to 150 members in 2025.

In the presidential race, only five candidates, Noboa, Luisa González, Andrea González, Iza and Luis Tilleria are polling above 1%.

The San Francisco University-Quito political science department, which compiles the “poll of polls” average, says two “outlier” polls show “widely divergent results” from other polls. One gives Noboa a 12% lead while the other gives González an 8% lead.