What went wrong for Daniel Noboa?

By Ana Lankes

On Sunday Ecuadorians went to the polls for the third time in four years to elect a president and all 151 members of their legislature. Many polls, bookmakers and the markets had predicted a win for Daniel Noboa, the hip president who has only been in power since a snap election in October 2023. Instead, he practically tied with Luisa González, a left-wing lawyer who is seen as a frontwoman for Rafael Correa, a powerful former leader living in exile to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. They will now head to a run-off in April.

President Daniel Noboa

What went wrong for Mr Noboa?

Quite a few things. Weeks after he assumed office, gangs orchestrated a show of force: they burned buses, rioted in prisons and even took hostages live on television. In response Mr Noboa called an “internal armed conflict” and sent the army onto the streets and into prisons. Ecuadorians overwhelmingly backed a referendum he called that gave the army sweeping powers. It looked like Mr Noboa’s mano dura approach to crime would swing him to victory.

Then things started to go awry. Murders ticked up again and reached a monthly record in January. Abuses by the military grew. In December four children aged 11 to 15 went missing. The army denied involvement but surveillance footage later showed that two had been forced into a military convoy. The incinerated bodies of the four boys were later found next to an air-force base. When asked to name the boys in a presidential debate, Mr Noboa seemingly did not know them. Meanwhile, Ecuadorians were dealing with blackouts and had to fork out extra cash for basic goods because Mr Noboa raised VAT to pay for his war on gangs. His approval ratings have more than halved since he took office.

Though Mr Noboa had a strong social-media campaign — featuring clips of him working out and looking tough while wearing bullet-proof vests and flexing his biceps — this was not enough. In 2023 he billed himself as an outsider. Now that he’s in power, fewer people buy that narrative. After all, he comes from one of the richest families in Latin America and his father has run for the presidency five times. He sometimes gives off spoiled vibes. On election night he left his supporters (and journalists) waiting at a 5-star hotel in Quito, where his team was watching the results. He never showed up. In contrast, Ms González gave an emphatic speech in a lower-income borough while bands played cumbia songs on the street.

Mr Noboa still has a chance to retain the presidency if he manages to peel off votes that went to the other 14 candidates in the race (who won around 12% of votes combined). Markets believe this would be better for the country than victory for Ms González. Her mentor, Mr Correa, is not only a convicted criminal but also praises autocrats like Nicolás Maduro. Senior members of his party have been implicated in recent investigations linking drug-traffickers with politicians.

For Mr Noboa there is one silver lining from this disappointing night: his party secured the most seats in the legislature. For the first time in decades Ecuador’s national assembly will be composed of two big blocs — his own and that of Mr Correa — instead of dozens of smaller parties that can’t agree on reforms and threaten to impeach presidents. That could make it easier to govern for whoever wins this race. We will find out on April 13 who that is.
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Credit: The Economist