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Are you waiting for the Covid-19 ‘second wave’? It won’t happen and here’s the reason why

By J.B. Handley

Why did politicians ever lockdown society in the first place? Can we all agree that the stated purpose was to “flatten the curve” so our hospital system could handle the inevitable COVID-19 patients who needed care? At that point, at least, back in early March, people were behaving rationally. They accepted that you can’t eradicate a virus, so let’s postpone things enough to handle it.

The fact is, we have done that, and so much more.

The headlines are filled with dire warnings of a “second wave” and trigger-happy U.S. governors are rolling back regulations to try to stem the tide of new cases. But, is any of it actually true and should we all be worried? No, it’s not a second wave.

The COVID-19 virus is on its final legs, and while I have filled this post with graphs to prove everything I just said, this is really the only graph you need to see, it’s the CDC’s data, over time, of deaths from COVID-19 here in the U.S., and the trend line is unmistakable:

If virologists were driving policy about COVID-19 rather than public health officials, we’d all be Sweden right now, which means life would effectively be back to normal. The only thing our lockdowns have done at this point is prolong the agony a little bit, and encouraged governors to make up more useless rules.

Sweden’s health minister understood that the only chance to beat COVID-19 was to get the Swedish population to a herd immunity threshold against COVID-19, and that’s exactly what they have done, so let me start there.

The Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) for COVID-19 is between 10-20%
This fact gets less press than any other. Most people understand the basic concept of herd immunity and the math behind it. In the early days, some public health officials speculated that COVID-19’s HIT was 70%. Obviously, the difference between a HIT of 70% and a HIT of 10-20% is dramatic, and the lower the HIT, the quicker a virus will burn out as it loses the ability to infect more people, which is exactly what COVID-19 is doing everywhere, including the U.S, which is why the death curve above looks the way it does.

Scientists from Oxford, Virginia Tech, and the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, all recently explained the HIT of COVID-19 in this paper:

“We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in propensity to acquire or transmit COVID-19 or other infectious diseases and overlaid the findings as vertical lines in Figure 3. Most CV estimates are comprised between 2 and 4, a range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the herd immunity threshold once as few as 10-20% of its individuals become immune.”

Calculations from this study of data in Stockholm showed a HIT of 17%, and if you really love data check out this great essay by Brown Professor Dr. Andrew Bostom titled, COVID-19 ‘herd immunity’ without vaccination? Teaching modern vaccine dogma old tricks. I’m going to share his summary with you, because it’s so good:

“Naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-19 combined with earnest protection of the vulnerable elderly – especially nursing home and assisted living facility residents — is an eminently reasonable and practical alternative to the dubious panacea of mass lockdowns and other measures against the virus.”

This strategy was successfully implemented in Malmo, Sweden, which had few COVID-19 deaths by assiduously protecting its elder care homes, while “schools remained open, residents carried on drinking in bars and cafes, and the doors of hairdressers and gyms were open throughout.”

One of the most vocal members of the scientific community discussing COVID-19’s HIT is Stanford’s Nobel-laureate Dr. Michael Levitt.

Back on May 4, he gave a great interview to the Stanford Daily where he advocated for Sweden’s approach of letting COVID-19 spread naturally through the community until you arrive at HIT. He stated:

“If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least as serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as some people thought.”

Guess what? That’s exactly what happened. As of today, 7 weeks after his prediction, Sweden has 5,280 deaths. Deaths in Sweden peaked when the HIT was halfway to its peak (roughly 7.3%) and by the time the virus hit 14% it was nearly extinguished.

How could Dr. Levitt have predicted the death range for Sweden so perfectly 7 weeks ago? Because he had a pretty solid idea of what the HIT would be. (If you’d like to further geek-out on HIT, check out: Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought.)

I absolutely love Dr. Levitt (and as a Stanford alum, so proud he is a Stanford professor) and am thrilled with his brand-new paper, released today, Predicting the Trajectory of Any COVID19 Epidemic From the Best Straight Line.

By the way, as a quick aside, and something else the press won’t touch: COVID-19 is a coronavirus, and we have all been exposed to many coronaviruses during our lives (like the common cold).

Guess what? Scientists are now showing evidence that up to 81% of us can mount a strong response to COVID-19 without having been exposed to it before:

“Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes revealed preexisting T-cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals, and validation of similarity to common cold human coronaviruses provided a functional basis for postulated heterologous immunity.”

This alone could explain why the HIT is so much lower for COVID-19 than some scientists thought originally, when the number being talked about was closer to 70%.

Many of us have always been immune!

If that’s not enough for you, a similar study from Sweden was just released and shows that “roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.”

(We kind of knew this from the data on the Diamond Princess when only 17% of the people on board tested positive, despite an ideal environment for mass spread, implying 83% of the people were somehow protected from the new virus.)

Quick Update: This article came out one day after I wrote mine, and validated everything I just said, except the author is wrong about COVID-19’s HIT, it’s 10-20%, not 60%, which is even better news:

“However, it does provide a possible explanation for why the Covid-19 epidemic seems to have died away in many places once it had infected around 20 per cent of the local population (as judged by the presence of antibodies). If people are developing some kind of immunity to Covid-19 via their T cells then it could mean that a far higher percentage of the population has been exposed to Covid-19 than previously thought. Antibodies and T cells combined, it is conceivable that some places such as London or New York are already at or near the 60 per cent infection level required to achieve herd immunity.”

Back to the death rates over time. We actually have our own Sweden here in the U.S. It’s called New York City. In our case, we accidentally created a Sweden scenario, in that we took our medicine quickly, because:

  1. New York locked down so late that the curve was not flattened
  2. They have the highest population density in the U.S. in New York City
  3. The public health officials and governor there made the bone-headed decision to send COVID-positive nursing home residents back to their nursing home, accelerating deaths of the most vulnerable.

What’s their death curve look like today? In this case, I borrowed the graph from the NYC public health website:

Hmm…notice anything about the chart or its slope? The reason deaths from COVID-19 are dwindling down to nothing isn’t because Governor Cuomo is a policy genius (in fact, he likely created more unnecessary deaths), it’s because the virus — like every virus in the history of mankind — is running out of people to infect.

The virus has a HIT of 10-20% and 70% of people are likely naturally immune. Hosts are in short supply! That’s what viruses do, and wait until you see what New York’s likely HIT is today.

We can get a crude, but helpful proxy for whether or not a state (or region) has achieved their own Herd Immunity Threshold if we know the following things: the size of the population, the number of deaths from COVID-19, and COVID-19’s IFR, or Infection Fatality Rate.

In my first blog post late last month, LOCKDOWN LUNACY: the thinking person’s guide, I discussed Infection Fatality Rate in detail, so I am just going to give a very quick summary here.

Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis published a meta-analysis (because so many IFR studies have been done around the world in April and early May) where he analyzed twelve separate IFR studies and his conclusion lays out the likely IFR for COVID-19:

The infection fatality rate (IFR), the probability of dying for a person who is infected, is one of the most critical and most contested features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The expected total mortality burden of COVID-19 is directly related to the IFR. Moreover, justification for various non-pharmacological public health interventions depends crucially on the IFR.

Some aggressive interventions that potentially induce also more pronounced collateral harms1 may be considered appropriate, if IFR is high. Conversely, the same measures may fall short of acceptable risk-benefit thresholds, if the IFR is low…Interestingly, despite their differences in design, execution, and analysis, most studies provide IFR point estimates that are within a relatively narrow range.

Seven of the 12 inferred IFRs are in the range 0.07 to 0.20 (corrected IFR of 0.06 to 0.16) which are similar to IFR values of seasonal influenza. Three values are modestly higher (corrected IFR of 0.25-0.40 in Gangelt, Geneva, and Wuhan) and two are modestly lower than this range (corrected IFR of 0.02-0.03 in Kobe and Oise).

The data on IFR has now been replicated so many times that our own Centers for Disease Control announced that their “best estimate” showed an IFR below 0.3%.

In this article on the CDC’s new data, they also highlighted how the cascading declines in IFR has removed all the fears of doomsday:

“That ‘best estimate’ scenario also assumes that 35 percent of infections are asymptomatic, meaning the total number of infections is more than 50 percent larger than the number of symptomatic cases. It therefore implies that the IFR is between 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent.

“By contrast, the projections that the CDC made in March, which predicted that as many as 1.7 million Americans could die from COVID-19 without intervention, assumed an IFR of 0.8 percent. Around the same time, researchers at Imperial College produced a worst-case scenario in which 2.2 million Americans died, based on an IFR of 0.9 percent.”

In order to be as bullet-proof as possible, and because the IFR is an important part of the math I will do right now, I’ve decided to pick a simple and defensible number, the final number pegged by the CDC for COVID-19’s IFR: 0.26%.

(As an aside, if we’d known this 3 months ago, no one in the public health world would have panicked. It’s a bad flu, and the rates for younger people are dramatically below 0.26% and approaching zero for children.)

Now that you understand COVID’s IFR and the likely HIT, it’s much easier to talk about the second wave, the data, and the implications. Here’s the deal:

“Yes, certain states are having an uptick in three measurements: COVID-19 tests administered, positive COVID-19 tests, and hospitalizations. All three of these measurements are dubious. Hopefully, some of the rise in cases is real, because then the U.S. will arrive at Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”), which has been slightly delayed by lockdowns, sooner. Based on the “death curve” in the U.S., we are very close to being done.”

Take population, COVID Deaths, and IFR to find HIT
C’mon stay with me! This math is basic, junior high level stuff. And, it’s going to give us the most important, but very crude, number we need to understand all this second wave nonsense: the approximate HIT already attained by state and by the United States.

If you know how many people have died from COVID-19 in any one region, you can quickly calculate how many people have had COVID-19 in that same region. All you do is divide deaths by the IFR. Let’s use NY as the example.

As of today, there have been 31,137 deaths from COVID-19. Take 31,137/.0026, you get 11,975,969 people infected with COVID-19. Take those 11 million people divided by New York’s population of 19.45 million, you get a HIT of…65%.

(Data geek comment: New York’s HIT is clearly OVER-stated, because total deaths drives HIT, and NY has a much higher rate of nursing home deaths due to bad policy.)

Huge disclaimer: This math is crude, but it’s also directionally accurate, and the comparisons between states helps explain what’s going on. Importantly, the HIT required to snuff out the virus in any one region could be lower than Sweden’s number of 17%, for a million reasons, most notably better medical knowledge today than a few months ago about how to keep a vulnerable person alive.

Still, just look at this table I created using the math above:

Notice anything? New York is well past Herd Immunity Threshold (as is New Jersey), the southern states in the news today are below the implied HIT, while the U.S. overall is nearly there with 15%. This is why the death curve from the CDC (and NYC!) that I opened this blog post with looks the way it looks: we are basically done with the virus. Just like Sweden. Oh, and Italy:

Quick update: Mount Sinai doctors just released a study showing a seroprevalence study of a random sample of 5,000 New Yorkers, it states that “by the week ending April 19, the seroprevalence in the screening group reached 19.3%.”

To continue reading, click here.
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Credit: Off Guardian

131 thoughts on “Are you waiting for the Covid-19 ‘second wave’? It won’t happen and here’s the reason why

  1. Handley is a “managing member of Bochi Investments, a private investing firm”, as noted at the end of the full Guardian article.

    1. I assume your comment would be the same for Bill Gates and others who are not expert virologists/ epidemiologists/ infectious disease specialists?

      Why is it that those who don’t like the message feel the need to attack the messenger rather than offer cogent refutation of the message?

      1. There is nothing that prevents anyone from becoming an expert and contributor in a field of choice, without professional accreditations. Gates began studying pandemics many years ago, and he is known to have a non-negligible mind. Should we reject light bulbs, recorded sound and a 100 other inventions because Thomas Edison had no formal engineering training? Such examples are legion.

        1. James Levitt writes:
          “There is nothing that prevents anyone from becoming an expert and
          contributor in a field of choice, without professional accreditations.

          Precisely my point. My comment was meant to be critical of those who are either incapable or too intellectually lazy to refute facts expressed in a message they dislike so instead attempt to accomplish this by discrediting/disparaging the messenger.

          1. The bigger fear should be the uneducated being led by the agenda driven editorial that uses a few facts sprinkled with a conspiracy or two, to spread their theory and meet that agenda…Alex Jones, Sean Hannity, tucker Carlson and rush limbaugh are great examples of uneducated, unethical and agenda driven, opinion editorial authors… none have credentials none call themselves journalists, that would imply they are following a line of journalistic ethics and integrity. I guess it’s easy to convince the uneducated masses… but it’s much more difficult to convince an educated, knowledgeable and accredited Statistical Process Control professional.. one that’s capable of reading and calculating the data to see for himself what the truth is… someone like that can easily discern the accurate articles from the conspiracies…
            If you need help with your math I’ll be more than happy to help you, just let me know..

            1. GIGO. Real IFR vs grossly inaccurate and distorted CFR.

              “Educated, knowledgeable and accredited professionals” use logic, reason, and objective, rational thought process to derive answers. They are usually smart enough to seek and listen to the expertise conveyed to them by other professionals who are experts in their respective fields.

              “Educated, knowledgeable and accredited professionals” are wise enough to constantly challenge their own beliefs with true scientific rigor and to discard mistaken ideas when presented with evidence proving them wrong…

              They also are able to read and comprehend printed material proffered by other professionals, to wit:

              Read the disclaimer and explanation re CFR vs IFR on the same page you referenced on the Our World In Data website:

              What we want to know isn’t the case fatality rate: it’s the infection fatality rate.

              Before we look at what the CFR does tell us about the mortality risk, it is
              helpful to see what it doesn’t. Remember the question we asked at the
              beginning: if someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is
              it that they will die? The answer to that question is captured by the
              infection fatality rate, or IFR…And, despite what some media reports imply, the CFR is not the same as – or, probably, even similar to – the IFR.

              What you persist in putting forward (and proudly proclaim that your math
              agrees with Johns Hopkins, Our World in Data and Worldometer) is CASE fatality rate, not Infection Fatality Rate. And the narrative published by Our World In Data right next to the graph you pointed to explains quite clearly why CFR overstates the lethality of Covid and why IFR is the number that you should be seeking.

              You wrote: “If you need help with your math I’ll be more than happy to help you, just let me know..”

              It’s you who needs help, Mike.

              1. Unlike them I don’t and won’t change the parameters of my calculations, if indeed the rate is dropping, then the rates in MY calculations will drop to confirm this. If the rates continue at the same pace or go up, well then it’s just another bogus conspiracy…. personally I hope they drop, so far, no they aren’t dropping… It looks like two weeks of results should show us…
                you too can do the calculations for yourself, the offer remains, since your obviously having troubles doing even the simplest of calculations, I’ll be more than happy to help you with those formulas…

                1. You write: “Unlike them I don’t and won’t change the parameters of my calculations…”

                  Expert mathematicians for centuries have tried to tell us that they know the formulas for calculating the area of a square peg and of a circle.

                  Unlike those so-called experts, I’ve devised my own formulas.

                  Unlike those so-called “expert” mathematicians, I know better than them so I don’t and won’t change the parameters of my calculations.

                  If indeed those mathematicians’ square pegs won’t fit into their round holes, I’m sure they’ll give me a call. And Mike, if you need any help figuring out whether your square peg will fit a round hole, I’ll be more than happy to help you with those formulas… it’s really the simplest of calculations.

                  1. The calculations are not complex, what they are doing is convoluting the equation. If the death rate is falling then it will show up in the numbers, and so far, unfortunately, it is not. Now does that mean the rate isn’t dropping, no not necessarily, perhaps there is a lag in the data… we’ll see when I do the calculations again next Friday… I’ll post what the rate is using the same formula I’ve been using all along… I’m also looking and hoping for a fall and an end to this but I’m not going to compromise and won’t grab onto something that’s just not there… if the rate is dropping it will show in the data. The current death rate is 4.6% and has been at that rate for 3 weeks.

                    1. Mike writes: “The current death rate is 4.6% and has been at that rate for 3 weeks.”

                      Why should anyone have the slightest shred of confidence in *anything* you promulgate?

                      First of all (and for the kazillionth time) what you are regurgitating is *not* the current “death rate” as you call it — it is a grossly overinflated statistic that is properly termed the Case Fatality Rate.

                      Even though I know I’m just beating my head against the wall, I’ll post this same excerpt once more in the hopes that you will eventually understand and acknowledge what the experts that you yourself cite have to say about Case Fatality Rate versus Infection Fatality Rate:

                      What we want to know isn’t the case fatality rate: it’s the infection fatality rate. Before we look at what the CFR does tell us about the mortality risk, it is helpful to see what it doesn’t. Remember the question we asked at the beginning: if someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is it that they will die? The answer to that question is captured by the infection fatality rate, or IFR…And, despite what some media reports imply, the CFR is not the same as – or, probably, even similar to – the IFR.

                      What you persist in putting forward (and proudly proclaim that your math agrees with Johns Hopkins, Our World in Data and Worldometer) is CASE fatality rate, not Infection Fatality Rate. And the narrative published by Our World In Data right next to the graph you pointed to explains quite clearly why CFR overstates the lethality of Covid and why IFR is the number that you should be seeking.

                      Secondly, the website you referenced (Our World In Data) disagrees with your statement that the “death rate” as you call it has remained constant for the last three weeks. Here are the Case Fatality Rate numbers (not the much lower and far more representative IFR values) they present for the past three weeks:

                      Jun 29 4.93
                      July 5 4.57
                      Jul 12 4.15

                      I don’t know about you, Mr. “Educated, Knowledgeable and Accredited Statistical Process Control Professional”, but those values sure don’t look constant to this dumb country bumpkin.

                2. Prove, to yourself and to us here, that so-called ‘confirmed cases’ are legitimate.
                  You seem to love your numbers, but you don’t know what goes into creating them to begin with.

                  1. The numbers I’m using are from worldometers and Johns Hopkins and I cross reference to assure they are consistent.
                    On occasion I’ll google a random site and throw that data into the mix to add another layer of reference…
                    That’s the only way us mortals can get that kind of data, do you have evidence that those sites have manipulated the data? EVIDENCE!

                    1. No. You don’t just take numbers from some site and pretend or hope they are legit. You look closely at what constitutes a ‘confirmed case’ and see for yourself if it is true; i.e. the criteria for it, the testing methods that supposedly identify it, the accuracy of the tests, the suitability of the tests, and so on.

                    2. Btw me and FUE we’ve mentioned many ways numbers are manipulated. You, however, refuse to listen or look for yourself.
                      So, you are in no position to say what you did. It’s a cop out.

            2. Mike – You said, “The bigger fear should be the uneducated being led by the agenda driven editorial that uses a few facts sprinkled with a conspiracy or two, to spread their theory and meet that agenda…”
              That PERFECTLY describes just about everything broadcast from mainstream media 24/7… if you astute enough to be able to look at it that way.

              1. There is a difference between a journalist and an op-ed. A journalist must live by a code of ethics that if isn’t adhered to will cost them their credentials and possibly their jobs and careers. While an opinion editorial has non of that to worry about. If you run a pure news outlet with nothing but journalists they will say certain things like, as reported in, or confirmed by, or not confirmed. They need to justify their report. We all know they could lie but it will cost them dearly if they are caught. An op-ed can say whatever he likes, he is a WWF star, purely for entertainment purposes. It’s when a news site employs both things get hazy and hard to define… Lou Dobbs is a journalist while Carlson, hannity and Judy are op-ed….

      2. Gates has become ten times the expert in virology, epidemiology and infectious disease than you could ever dream of becoming.

        1. BS. He’s just another guy who can study something on his own, just like me or you or FUE. We could put in some time and effort and become quite the expert on the subject as well, if we are capable and interested.
          The FAR more important point is this, “Could you or I create, run, fund or steer numerous vax research labs, dramatically steer govt and NGO efforts, set policy or steer enforcement based on our our informally acquired knowledge?”
          Of course not.
          So, do you want this guy who you do not personally know to have that power over you? Do you know, precisely, what his personally stated and personally unstated secret agendas really are? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY-vLrz9XCc
          Do you like having this smug SOB and his lovely smirking homespun wife determining how you are allowed to run your life? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELP2EFVOOYc
          Does any of this matter at all to you? Or are you just another herd member with a keyboard and a superior attitude?

      3. Personally, this is the first herd immunity ratio I’ve heard of at such a low percentage… now that would be a huge game changer… if true, then the death rates (the real ones, not the rates using full population density to pad the numbers), should show drops in the next few weeks. But if there is no drop in real death rates, using closed cases, then this is just another failed concept… it will take at least two weeks at the 10-17% herd immunity numbers before the math should start to reflect the drop to prove this
        The lancet study is on the far end of this concept, they went as far as to suggest herd immunity may be unattainable.
        Let’s hope the rates show a drop…

        1. Free thinker: “I don’t care what thorough research and proven, repeatable, peer-reviewed science says, I do what I want!”

    2. And investment member who is suddenly the expert in epidemiology? 😂. Just like Trump, an expert of everything, yet couldn’t even take the SAT exam! 😂

      1. Yes, Trump could only make BILLIONS of $$$ and become President of the USA on his FIRST entry into politics!!!!!!

        1. Every bit of what that fool said about being a billionaire is a lie. If you don’t believe that, explain why he has worked so hard to hide his tax returns for so long.

        2. No that’s not right, how do you know how much he has?
          Trump inherited a fortune, we inaugurated a mess, and furthermore that will be a four year mistake that ends in November… first entry in politics, wow that’s hard to believe, looking at how much he’s screwed up you would think he was a life long republican… he does photograph nicely, fox has removed his pic with Epstein, I wonder why?

      2. A software programmer (Gates) who is suddenly the expert in vaccines? The guy whose software (MS operating system) comes down with viral infections day in and day out? The guy whose software is purposefully made to surveil and track everything you do on your Windows computer?
        You like this guy? You actuallytrust this guy?

    3. Lots of weird stuff out there, and the virus is making it more, not less, prevalent. It victimizes and endangers the lives of the conspiracy theory crowd and, through them, the rest of us. CHL has always had its deep biases and is known to frequently delete our posts that dispute them. But lately, between this article and yesterday’s note encouraging a drinking bleach cure indicates that the stress has pushed them very far indeed. I am guessing that the relationship between CHL and the very capable Ms. Burke is now analogous to that between you-know-who and Dr. Fauci.

      1. You are right. Susan Burke March kept the idiots somewhat in check and now that she is gone, the voice of reason has left with her.

        1. She was not always perfectly correct, but she did her homework and she was never ridiculous. There is a difference between working to find facts and cherry-picking what you like or what you think your base will like.

          Have you also considered that if the media template I describe is accurate, then it is to be expected the population will sadly adapt. That makes people like you the exception and the “idiots” the norm. 🙁

    4. J L Handley’s article is a completely unjustified and premature analysis of the available data. It would take far to long to dispute it’s many, many half-truths and flat out disinformation. Yes, it’s too bad that businesses are taking a hit. And yes, the death rate is currently down. Good enough??!! There’s tremendous harm, short of death, being done to tens of thousands of people in the USA alone. Aren’t approximately 15% of cases requiring hospitalization, and another 5% needing intensive care? It would truly be great if we were actually on the downside of this. But many well informed people think otherwise. Let’s have a look at statistics on the dead and injured in another month. Tell me then that we over-reacted.

        1. Ok. Look right now. You seem to just want to argue. If not on this, you’ll find something else. Have fun.

          1. If you don’t want to discuss (argue), why did you make the comment, “… in another month”? Any sort of speculation/prediction on your part is irrelevant… unless you want your opinion discussed.

        2. I won’t, in a month I’ll tell you the truth, like I’ve been doing all along, it’s up to you whether you want to believe it or not.
          Don’t think for one minute that you have the corner on wanting this to end. We all do, but the data, science and health care professionals will be the ones that tell us when we are there, not op-ed’s.

  2. You must have had some help from donald to write this….keep your eye on the death curve.

    1. Do the number of quick fatalities matter that much? According to the latest Houston findings, 76% of asymptomatic cases show worrisome body damage upon closer examination. Heart, lungs, bowels, brain. Anecdotally, I picked up a not uncommon lung disease when I was 15. Sixty years later I can tell you it has characterized the later part of my life and it looks like I will eventually die from it. (shrug) It looks like that will be the fate of those we thought to be relatively immune a few short months ago. Now it looks like they will merely have to live with its damage longer.

    2. It’s getting better, and if the curve drops significantly then this article may provide some hope… rate is currently at 4.5% even a 1% drop would be significant enough to follow up with it…two weeks…

  3. Good read, but perfect example of verbosity. All that could have been stated in fewer than half the words.

    1. The more words used, the more cherry-picked citations, the more authoratative it comes off.

  4. So many interesting points in this article, some of which need clarification.

    First, it’s refreshing to see an article based on math and science instead of the usual magic and conspiracy theories.

    Second, it isn’t yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.

    Finally, all of the opinions/studies I can find relating to a lower HIT indicate that the REASON for a lower HIT is due to “Heterogeneity” — which refers to the variations in BEHAVIOR and biological differences among people. “Differences in social behaviors lead some people to have more exposure to a disease than others. Biological differences also play a role in how likely people are to get infected.”

    In other words, the “rules” of masks, social distancing and hand washing are necessary — whether via laws as in Asia, or relying on the individual as in Sweden. (The Swedes specifically said that their intention was NOT aimed at achieving herd immunity, but to let individuals control the spread through responsible behavior — something Americans are surely incapable of).

    The article might leave the impression that we can all go about our normal routines and achieve herd immunity at 20%-30%, but this is not true. These forecasts take into account the impact of interventions, such as social distancing, proper hand hygiene and the use of masks. “The threshold could be one number as long as a lot of people are wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings, and another much higher number if and when people let their guard down.”

    See:
    https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-math-of-covid-19-herd-immunity-20200630

    1. You should revisit this “herd immunity concept”. The last I heard or read was that the herd immunity in Sweden failed and they are having a resurgence of COVID-19. I could be wrong. Let me know.

      1. Herd immunity happens when enough of a population becomes immune to a disease to prevent its spread. However, the quick disappearance of antibodies produced by the body to fight Covid-19 suggests that herd immunity is NOT possible with this virus. And the disappearance of the antibodies happens very fast when the case, like most, is asymptomatic. Sadly, reports from all over the world are now finding that the asymptomatic cases show lung and other permanent damage (76% of such cases from the current Houston experience) even in individuals who did not realize they had it!

        If we consider these findings, those with asymptomatic cases are left with the “prior conditions” from their first infection that they have no clue of. If they catch the disease again, the outcome will be almost certainly be less happy. 🙁 The smartest (only) course at the moment is to take EVERY precaution and allow the bleach takers and anti-vaxxers to quietly die off.

      2. You are not wrong. Sweden had so many deaths that the morgues could not handle all the extra bodies. They were being stored in their ice rinks. The doctors in the hospitals insisted that they were having too many cases but Sweden ignored them.

        On Jun 3, 2020 – Sweden the country’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, after too many unnecessary deaths and medical complications, FINALLY said that Sweden should have handled its coronavirus response differently,

        1. Do you ever fact-check your posts or do you just take them straight from Facebook to the CHL comment section?

          First of all, the story about an ice rink in Sweden being used as a temporary morgue is not true. It is true that provisions were made in case the facility was needed but that never came about, unlike in Madrid, Maryland and the UK where ice rinks were used as overflow facilities for morgues.

          Second, if you’re going to cite Tegnell’s comments, you should do so fairly. Here’s what he said at the press conference on June 3rd:

          Anders Tegnell of the Public Health Agency denied that “the Swedish strategy was wrong and should be changed. That’s not the case.”

          “We still believe that our strategy is good, but there is always room for improvement. … You can always get better at this job,” Tegnell told a news conference in Stockholm.

          At the news conference, Tegnell made it clear that his previous statement “was an admission that we always can become better. I’m sure my colleagues all over the world would say the same thing. There are always aspects which we could have handled this situation even better than we do today, now, as we learn more and more things,” he told The Associated Press.

            1. Excerpts from today’s “The Telegraph” article that answers your question succinctly [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/11/second-wave-covid-swedish-approach-will-have-right-along/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1265893&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Sub&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Sub20200713&utm_campaign=DM1265893 ]

              One country can look to the winter with less trepidation than most. Last week, a study suggested that 30 per cent of Swedes have built up immunity to the virus. It would help explain why Covid-19 has been fizzling out in Sweden. If a measure of herd immunity also helps them avoid the second wave, Sweden’s take-it-on-the-chin approach will be vindicated…

              With half of humanity living under lockdown, photos of Swedes socialising in bars and restaurants seemed like communiqués from another dimension. Aside from a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people, life carried on as normal. Children aged under 16 went to school. No one wore a mask. This, surely, was the calm before a terrible storm.

              The catastrophe never arrived. As in most other European countries, Sweden saw a peak in Covid-19 deaths in the first half of April followed by a steady decline. Shown on a graph, the pattern of mortality is indistinguishable from that of many countries that locked down. Its daily death toll rarely exceeded double figures and has been below 30 since mid-June. As in Britain, half the deaths were in care homes and two-thirds of those who died were aged 80 or over.

              Once it became clear that their apocalyptic prophecy had failed, critics of the Swedish approach turned to post hoc rationalisation. They cited low population density and a high rate of single person households as the explanation for Sweden’s lucky escape. Some claimed that social distancing was a natural part of Swedish culture or that Swedes did not talk enough for virus droplets to be transmitted. Some of this was true and much of it was nonsense, but none of it had been mentioned in March when Sweden was said to be doomed..

              It is now considered gauche to compare Sweden to Britain, Italy, Spain or any other country that had a higher death rate. You are only allowed to compare it to its immediate neighbours where the death rate is lower. Mention the UK or, heaven forbid, Belgium (which locked down a week before the UK and has the highest COVID-19 death rate in the world) and you will be told that they should have locked down sooner. The proposition becomes unfalsifiable. Heads they win, tails you lose…

              Sweden will not be unscathed by the global recession. Its GDP is expected to decline by 5.3 per cent this year. But GDP is expected to fall by 8.7 per cent in the Eurozone, by 9.7 per cent in Britain and by more than 10 per cent in Italy, France and Spain. Sweden has not put its children’s education on hold.

              It has not put its citizens under soul-sapping house arrest. If a vaccine goes into production by autumn, the Swedes will look reckless. But that is not going to happen – and winter is coming.

              1. They are saying 3rd stage testing will complete by the end of the year and if one or more of the vaccines are effective and safe they could start production early in the year and start treating vulnerable and immune deficient population… so we’re realistically looking at widespread inoculations by spring at the earliest if the vaccine proves effective.
                Saying they have 30% of the population have immunity, how have they come to that conclusion? The Spanish report places a lot of scepticism on that claim in itself. That study shows the Spanish only have 5-6% immunity after they had huge numbers of infected. Now there is some question regarding levels of antibodies required to achieve immunity…. some say the levels don’t need to be high to have immunity, others reject that…
                on another note, doesn’t Sweden with 30% “immunity” show that the article regarding 10-15% immunity will create a fall in cases, false? If Sweden with 30% immunity, still has growing case numbers proves this article false… doesn’t it? Of coarse that’s putting the effects on the economy aside… in my mind, if they keep the economy going and have reasonable numbers, within 1-2%, I would think they did accomplish the goal and have a winning strategy for how to deal with this type of pandemic… there is a lot of variables in that statement and everything hinges on a working vaccine being produced..

                1. Mike, you cannot possibly be serious about your rosy, cavalier attitude toward whatever new vax shows up. Do you really believe everything MSM says?

      3. Did you read the article? He talks about Sweden specifically. You may wish to dispute what he said but it appears you didn even read it.

    2. Juan, What is known is changing fast. You are out-dated. Try Medical Journals like the Lancet. The popular media is totally untrained in medicine and statistical analysis and both are necessary for a full understanding of pandemics. They cannot properly report on subjects they do not understand at all.

      1. The Lancet has just withdrawn an article on COVID, https://retractionwatch.com/2020/07/10/a-month-after-surgisphere-paper-retraction-lancet-retracts-replaces-hydroxychloroquine-editorial/, namely the one on HCQ. For some reason they let a crazy article through and it did huge harm. This is no time to be leaning on the Lancet as the only reliable voice out there. Trials of HCQ were cancelled on the basis of that stupid wrong article. They made a mistake and they did harm. HCQ is apparently very very helpful, and those who have opposed its use have likely killed people. This is no time for arguments to authority and specifically the Lancet.

      2. James, which part of my post is out dated? Not disputing what you say, just wondering because as far as I can see it’s up to date. Thanks. Juan.

    3. There was an article by the lancet and ran by cnn about Spain’s results from the testing and the lack of Antibodies. The conclusion was that herd immunity was impossible to attain. The exact opposite of this article but worth watching..if the death rate shows a significant drop in the next 2 weeks…

  5. The curve for new cases is skyrocketing in many parts of the US. The death curve typically inflects 4 to 5 weeks later. The death curve just started its likely upward inflection in the last couple days — yep, about 4 to 5 weeks after the number of new cases started its recent skyward climb.

    As for the damage of shutting down society, look to Sweden. They did no shutdown. No particular efforts to stem the tide. They felt the “cure would be worse than the disease.” OK, so how do they stand? Turns out their economic DOWNturn (ie, loss of GNP) is expected to be worse than any of its neighbors. Neighbors locking down actually had LESS damage than Sweden keeping everything open.

    Lots of theories on why that is true, but basically it seems to come down to the citizens of Sweden were worried about the virus more than the government, so sheltered on their own — which turned out to be more severe than the sheltering that other governments mandated.

    1. We’ll have a better picture in a few weeks but given Dr. Levitt’s track record it’s hard to bet against him.

    2. Burt Johnson writes: “The curve for new cases is skyrocketing in many parts of the US.”

      You obviously didn’t read the article. If you decide that it’s better to read the full article before commenting, you might also check out the article that Juan references in his comment which also explains regional differences in HIT [https://disq.us/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.quantamagazine.org%2Fthe-tricky-math-of-covid-19-herd-immunity-20200630%3ArJch-6ehOZQ7W4_qw05DCYDHF5Y&cuid=3733345 ] and this article: Will There Be A Second Covid Wave? [https://unherd.com/2020/06/should-we-expect-a-covid-second-wave/?=refinnar ]

      Re Sweden (quoting excerpt from Pressured Sweden Counts The Cost Of Its Idiosyncratic Lockdown at [https://www.afr.com/world/europe/pressured-sweden-counts-the-cost-of-its-idiosyncratic-lockdown-20200703-p558l3 ]):

      The looser lockdown has helped Sweden escape the worst economic effects of the pandemic: Oxford Economics expects a GDP contraction in 2020 of just under 4 per cent, compared with almost 8 per cent for the eurozone currency area.

      Read the rest of the article for an explanation as to why your assertions are misinformed.

      1. And by the nature of the internet, I can find references that directly contradict yours. The NYT does quite a lot of study of it daily, but then I doubt you would accept the studies from a reputable news source, preferring conspiracy whack-o’s, as you usually do. As such, I am not going to even bother quoting more actual facts that you will ignore.

        1. So which ‘expert’ are you going to believe?
          Whose advice will you live by?
          How will you know if they are correct, or not?
          Do you simply trust them and hope for the best?
          Can you make your own decisions?

        2. Well, that certainly settles that, doesn’t it?

          I read the NYT every day. But I also read WaPo, the Telegraph, the Guardian, the WSJ and myriad other news sources. I don’t accept anything any of them say as gospel truth. I guess you missed it, but I’ve previously been crucified here by some for citing the NYT as a reputable news source.

          Regarding your hamfisted insult, I guess people were “conspiracy whacko-s” (sic) who questioned the NYT and Judith Miller regarding Iraq’s WMDs and other interventionist propaganda that they promulgated and continue to promulgate.

          If you’re not interested in hearing multiple sides of an issue and weighing the information presented objectively, then why did you bother to read this article?

          Oops… I forgot. You didn’t read it, did you?

        3. Amen. FUE clings to an ideology that has already been disproven, but like the true ideologue that he is, he just won’t give up the ghost.

        4. The New York Times is a far left, hard core Marxist rag. A week does not go by that it has to retract its lies. It’s deliberate disinformation has gotten so bad that it doesn’t even bother to retract its major story lies anymore. Obviously, if there was no lock down in Sweden, people went to work. That alone, would be reason to suspect your quoted statistics that the GDP is worse in Sweden than in other European countries that underwent lock downs.

          1. What, the nyt is a real news source, they don’t lean in any direction and that is why the right disapproves of them… I wonder how fox fits into your world of real news,,, most of foxes performers are op-ed entertainers. They are not bound by journalistic ethics and it shows.

            1. Anyone who would say that the NYT is a neutral source is eating some very hallucinatory mushrooms.

      2. Freddy, what would you like to see happening here? I see your trying to get something to happen but what exactly is that… they aren’t going to open everything up to the southern state fiasco. It’s also very obvious they aren’t going to sacrifice lives for the economy here… so, in your mind , what is it you’d like to see?

        1. Mikey, what I would like to see happening not just here but everywhere is never going to come about but you asked so here it is — the “something that I would like to see happen:”

          I would like to see people vigorously seek out quality, well-reasoned and documented factual information from multiple opposing viewpoints and sources, then intelligently, thoughtfully and objectively evaluate that information with a critical, skeptical and rational mindset.

          That’s it.

          That’s all I want.

          Yes, I know.

          Dream on.

          1. We all want the truth, when I read some of the articles you have put forward they don’t pass the statistical tests, that is the math shows a different story than the article is claiming. Now for this last one, you are adamant about it being true, that the herd immunity can be achieved at 10-15% infection rate and that is what the new math, convoluted, death rate has shown, I’m hoping it’s true and I’m going to do the math, the same way I always have, without the forecast for population density projected case numbers that I believe they are interjecting into their formulas to come to that conclusion, ahead of the raw data.
            So if it’s true, and the death rate is actually falling at an exponential pace It will show up in the data within the next week or two… I’ll post the calculated rate next Friday after I do my usual number crunch and we’ll see if it is showing, a drop proving that theory… I hope it drops… that would be the beginning of the end of this… but if it doesn’t, accept the fact that it’s just another theory proven wrong… and don’t shoot the messenger.. I’m just crunching the numbers. The facts are the facts.. again my last calculation showed 4.6% death rate, Johns Hopkins showed a 4.5% death rate. Even a .5% drop would be the biggest drop in three weeks… and I would be excited to see it.

              1. Ok, so there aren’t enough tests to go around and as you were quick to point out, hospitals, in the US, get more money for covid cases, so you feel they are all positive to pump up the cases and get more money. Correct? That doesn’t explain how other countries get almost identical death rates, they have nothing to gain, no extra money goes to Canadian, German, Scandinavian…..
                I suggest that it is just what you thought (nice catch) a conspiracy. I would think if the tests are limited and you get more money for a covid case and proof is required to get those extra funds that they make sure all their suspected cases get tested first..this is proving that the doctors are very good at diagnosing covid cases. Money is king in the US, therefore they are going to make sure they get what they deserve. It’s good that they make them test suspected cases now, to weed out any corruption…. don’t you think?

                1. Mike writes: That doesn’t explain how other countries get almost identical death rates, they have nothing to gain, no extra money goes to Canadian, German, Scandinavian…”

                  Almost identical?

                  Your favorite Worldometer website shows death rates (deaths /1M pop) ranging from 0.08 up to 1238. Even the so-called “first world” countries have huge disparities in death rates.

                  1. FUE – Based on your and my response (MIO) to Mike… it gets me to thinking… what actually is an effective way to get at the root of MIOs? (from God Wants You Dead book). Rational thinking and applied logic surely gets at the present issue relatively well, whatever the issue is. But even then, the strong value weightings applied to our MIO beliefs can make them highly resistant to challenge, much less full elimination. Repeated rational/logical assaults on MIOs perhaps weakens them over time, til they falter and collapse. But I’ve seen little evidence of that in most people.
                    So anyway, food for thought.

                2. Mike – You, personally, are an excellent study of how the wonderful human mind will bend and contort itself to amazing degrees to justify whatever meme idea-organism (MIO) has taken root in it.

                  Sure, we all contort to some degree. Everyone carries around multiple beliefs they hold dear. And they develop their overall sense of self-identity to glue them all together. Strictly applied logic helps rebalance points of view superficially. But the original MIO is still in there. Getting at the root of the MIO is the challenge for everyone.

    3. Finally, the voice of reason shows up to refute the nonsense in this non-scientific article.

    4. True we won’t see results from the latest batch of cases for two to three weeks but that won’t affect the death rate percentage, it’ll still show a drop percentage wise if the herd immunity theory is correct, it will be proven of disproven by the death rate…

    1. How is this “far right”? It’s a different take on the pandemic but just because it’s not from the mainstream media doesn’t make it far right.

        1. It is merely the culture of one’s upbringing. That is what established reflex responses. If it weren’t so tragic. it would be more fascinating to watch. For example, the new liberty being discussed is amazing. The Freedom to Infect Others.

          1. You do realize that you are ‘infecting’ scads of people every day, simply by living, breathing, eating and touching things. You carry huge numbers of bacteria and viruses in you and on you. With every inhalation you take in more. With every exhalation you spread more around. It cannot be stopped, nor would you want it to stop. Microbes build and maintain the massive communication system for all life. Genetic info is exchanged constantly, and viruses are the primary vector for doing that.
            You still seem to cling to the germ theory of disease. I’d suggest you look to more recent and advanced theories.

            1. Thanks PC. I see what you are getting at. We can all safely ignore Covid-19 social distancing and masks as there are so many ways we can all be bad for each other. But as I have stated many times, there is a segment of the western world (of which you adhere) who twist anything to suit what they want to believe. Following your logic, it is also true that we are all destined to die from the moment we are born, so why bother to look while crossing a street in heavy traffic?
              The sadness is that your attitude will kill you earlier than needs be, either from this pandemic or one of the next. But the true tragedy is how many others you will take with you. US Stats show that each of your contacts will quickly spread to 60 people, men, women. children, and on from there.
              PC’s FREEDOM TO INFECT OTHERS.

              1. JL – You have been ‘infecting’ others your whole life, every minute
                of it. In fact, you have spread a virtually infinite number of germs
                to thousands of other people, potentially infecting them, maybe even
                killing them. Every breath, every touch, every meal, every moment.
                All this, according to your belief that this is how contagion
                works.

                Do you deny this? Do you feel good about it? Should you
                have been wearing a mask and gloves, hazmat suit and rebreathing
                apparatus all your previous life? Should we all wear them?

                1. Taoism, refers to the universe being so huge and we are so small and insignificant, what is it that you, as this tiny speck, expect to do to change anything. Who are you as compared to the vastness of the galaxy… why should I work, to what ends do I strive… it’s all futile, we should just surrender to the ultimate end that we are all certain to experience. The time is upon us to stop the futility and allow the universe to take its rightful place and control our fate… right PC, the time to surrender control is now, and let nature take charge.. you would be an excellent Taoist…

              2. No, PC is referring to the 30 lbs of biomass we all carry around in our guts, that keep our systems functioning properly, yogurt commercials are promoting this biomass. Some have even gone as far as to have biomass transfers, that’s fecal matter from a healthy person being put into a large syringe and anally inserted into themselves… I personally wouldn’t think of doing that but in extreme cases they say it does work to replenish that biomass… usually it would be someone that had large quantities of antibiotics or radiation treatment that has killed all or most of their biomass.. we generally don’t pass on this mass with ease.
                I am not a believer that this virus should be added, like all the other viruses are, to our biomass. Not yet anyway, it will need to mutate to a less deadly form first.. or we’ll have to develop the vaccine and introduce a less deadly form to ourselves and ready the antibodies for its introduction… that is the heart of herd immunity…

                1. Mike – It’s called the microbiome and microvirome. Both are vital to your ongoing health. Biomass is a general term describing any large amount of biological matter. Most people’s horrible diets quickly upset the balance of their microbiome/virome, setting the stage for inevitable chronic disease, should poor diet and lifestyle continue. Herd immunity likely won’t be happening, and any vax likely won’t work, because immunological responses, memory cell programming and generated antibodies to coronaviruses don’t tend to ‘stick’ and persist. But a vax will come to center stage anyway, because it justifies ‘immunity passports.’ Savior Vax has been hyped plenty already, but we’ll see a massive pro-vax marketing attack sometime soon. And besides, Gates wants it.

  6. I thought CHL was going to make a concerted effort to stop publishing dreck. This is nothing but speculation by someone who is not in the medical OR public health field, cherry-picking lines from studies that suit his theory and stating them as fact. That’s NOT how science works.

    C’mon CHL, I’m trying to give you a second chance, but it’s pretty hard after seeing the same-old same-old.

    1. The article is clearly market opinion. The problem is not chl but readers caught up in internet tribalism and unable to consider opinions other than their own beliefs. I see this is a growing trend — the “great dumbing down” as one writer put it.

      1. So which ‘expert’ are you going to believe?
        Whose advice will you live by?
        How will you know if they are correct, or not?
        Do you simply trust them and hope for the best?
        Can you make your own decisions?

        1. I believe the one that the science backs up, that is my criteria.. so far the article as written sounds convincible, but there are at least two opposing articles that suggests herd immunity can’t be achieved, the lancet is the latest one. So far the data shows a drop in mortality of 2 percent from 3 months ago, personally I have attributed that drop to increasingly better treatment options.
          For this current article, I’d like to see it as true as well, it’ll take time to prove it through a drop in the death rate, I’ve been using a set of criteria that is fixed in science, from the beginning of the pandemic.
          If the death rate drops, significantly in the next two weeks, using the same criteria I’ve used from the start. Then that would prove this current theory, if it stays flat or increases then it proves otherwise… I would be ecstatic to see a drop, that would be the beginning of the end of this pandemic. Time will tell…
          I’m the meantime, stay with the program and follow the safety protocol…

    2. Groupthink is so prevalent and contagious here, it’s frightening.
      Is there a vax for GroupThink constellation of diseases?
      If there is a “Great Dumbing Down” occurring, you are looking at an example of it right on this chatboard.

        1. I love how people revel in their obstinence and close-mindedness. They wear it so proudly. Kinda like the “I voted” stickers.

    3. I don’t get it. From what I’ve seen chl has covered all sides of the virus story going back to February. It seems like they’ve gone out of their way to be fair. Maybe you should work on your reading comprehension. I don’t think this website needs a “second chance,” whatever that means.

    4. Jeana, if this is true and fact, it will prove itself in two weeks. If it isn’t then it will again prove itself. Either way the proof will be evident, soon, within two weeks. The numbers and science will always win.

  7. This article is pure bullshit. Its major premise is that the death rate has steadily declined and will soon be extinguished. Of course that flies in the face of the fact that the death rate has recently turned upward and that the death rate is a lagging indicator that follows hospitalizations and reported infections. Time will show this to be pure nonsense and it will make the author look like the fool that he is.

    1. Oh wow, another Cuenca expat bullshit boy with all the answers. Even the real scientists admit it will be a couple years before we know how this thing plays out. Go grab a beer Donald, and relax that hard-on. We’ll sort out the nonsense next year or the year after. There will be plenty to go around.

      1. You may have a point. The US is going to be so ravaged by the first wave (which wasn’t dealt with by its leaders) that a second wave won’t matter. After all, if you let something like this burn through your entire population like wildfire, what’s left to re-burn?

  8. It never ceases to amaze me that so many of the so called erudite posters keep bantering back and forth on Covid 19. As entertaining as many of the posts are, no one seems to understand what this whole Covid 19 scam is about. Educate yourselves by searching and reading what Event 201 was all about. This whole thing about Covid 19 was to test the populace as to what would be their reaction and how much the elite could get away with by this scam. It would be well for the posters to check out the objects of the World Economic Forum at WEF.org. It is not rosy!! I am sure you know the motto ” out of chaos order”. This scamdemic is the chaos that the WEF orchestrated and their objectives are the order. BTW the WEF is composed of non elected persons who want to bring order to our maligned planet. Please try to read and get up to speed on what this is all about!!

    1. Maurice Strong

      (Founder of the UN Environment Programme)

      “Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialised civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
      “In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that the threat of global warming would fit the bill, the real enemy then is humanity itself. We believe humanity requires a common motivation, namely a common adversary to realise a One World Government. It does not matter if this common enemy is a real one or one invented for the purpose.” (Club of Rome -1968).

      1. Yes, those islands that are disappearing are fake just like the virus…
        I’m sure you have heard of bikini island… they built a concrete tomb on the biggest highest atoll to dump all of the contaminated material into, then they sealed it, never to have to worry about it again…
        the water level has risen to the point where it is lapping over this tomb, but I’m sure the atoll is sinking not the water level has risen… couldn’t be global warming.
        You really need to see the archived videos of when they were building this to appreciate just how high above the water it was…

    2. Oh yes now that you say it, it all makes perfect sense.
      Of coarse, all they needed to do was get every country on the planet to agree, this is an emergency, then you would need to get the millions of epidemiologist worldwide on board, then get the tens of millions of doctors, then nurses, then hospital staff, then, then ,then ,then…. it’s perfectly reasonable to think it’s some group pulling the strings and doing this…. no way it could be a pandemic,,, like the thousands of pandemics from our history…. hey maybe they were all part of the great plan to lead us to believe this one is true too… wow they are good…

      1. You apparently are not aware that in controlled hierarchies, each level has its own ‘need to know’ criteria. Military, corporate, etc. It’s in common use.
        With a pandemic (or any similar emergency situation), esp and certainly if it was planned beforehand, a strong hierarchy will be put in place, with strict need-to-know criteria in place with it. In this case doctors have their place, public health officials have their place, diseased individuals have their place, govt leaders have their place, international orgs have their place, and so on.

        1. So , we are the sheep being led to the slaughter by a hidden system that has an advantage by killing, sickening and crippling its own population, in a preplanned and organized collusion. That has been in the works for generations and is being implemented now.
          Do I have this right?

    3. The amount of evidence that does not fit the preferred narrative is overwhelming. But most people cannot or will not let themselves see it. The internal cognitive dissonance is too painful.

      1. Or, it is exactly what they say, a pandemic that started in China and wasn’t dealt with properly so has now gotten out of hand and some people just can’t or won’t accept that so they feel the need to comfort themselves with whimsical fantasy conspiracies.

        1. Just FYI, Mike. This is from a newsletter that I receive daily:

          Remember when Georgia opened “too early,” according to Doomers?

          The Atlantic called it Georgia’s “experiment in human sacrifice.”

          The hysteria was unbelievable.

          So how did that turn out?

          COVID deaths in Georgia the week before the April 27 reopening: 235

          COVID deaths in Georgia the week of May 27, one month after the April 27 reopening (therefore more than allowing for the lag between infection and death): 213

          COVID deaths in Georgia over the past seven days: 139 (despite a spike in “cases” that began three weeks ago)

          Someone who belongs to the Tom Woods Show Elite just broke down what’s happening in Georgia right now even further:

          Georgia has around 2,900 CV19 deaths to date and sits at 98% of their total deaths avg of 2017-2019 (less than expected deaths).

          Rona Deaths/Million

          GA: 276

          US overall: 409

          NY: 1,663

          Louisiana: 723

          Michigan: 628

          45% of GA deaths have been from long-term elder care facilities. 770 of the deaths have been aged 85+. Even the Imperial College model predicted that 50-60% of CV19 deaths would have occurred within 2020 anyway.

          For those under 50 (the bowling crowd), there have been 67K cases but only 176 deaths.

          Again June 10th is a key date when cases started to skyrocket across 11 states.

          GA since June 10th (7 day avg)

          Cases up 286%

          Tests up 65%

          Deaths DOWN 58%

          Be aware that many states are sifting through death certificates and logging deaths from April/May. This has caused a few spikes over the past week and GA may do the same at some point.

          Anything is possible, but we are now well past the historical lag period between rising cases and corresponding deaths.

          I don’t know why recorded cases started increasing so quickly on the same date across multiple states, but certainly contact tracers are part of the answer. When you hire thousands of people to tag coronavirus cases, you get more coronavirus cases or the jobs disappear.

          Contact Tracers in Georgia

          May 12- 250 Tracers and 3,800 cases

          As of June 19th – 1,300 Tracers and 16,590 cases

          There could also be an impact from migrant workers. As of yesterday, there are more cases among “non Georgia residents” than DeKalb and Cobb counties. Very few hospitalizations/deaths from this group.

          Hospital capacity has risen but still very well within normal levels. More than 20% capacity available statewide for general and ICU beds.

          About 10% of beds in the state are occupied by a lab confirmed positive patient but this DOES NOT mean the patient is experiencing CV19 symptoms. FL and AZ and indicated that between 33-50% of positive patients are in the hospital for unrelated reasons.

          Lessons:

          Contextualize all numbers.

          Assume the media is playing up numbers and stories that sound scary (what other conclusion is left to us at this point?).

          1. Well let’s see on Friday, I’ll do another calculation, using the same methodology, and if what your saying is true then it should show lower percentages, i for one would be very happy to see it…

            1. Great article! Makes way too much sense to ever be adopted . Thanks for pointing it out to me. We can live in hope that the current crisis finally brings more people to their senses… and yes, I’ve always been a dreamer. 🙂

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