Blackouts end today but will they return? It all depends on the weather, experts say
For the time in 88 days, Ecuadorians woke up Friday to a day without electric blackouts. Two weeks ago, President Daniel Nobia announced blackouts would end December 20, saying “our long energy nightmare will be over.”
The water level at the Mazar hydroelectric reservoir northeast of Cuenca is rising but remains far below the optimum operational level.
The end of blackouts does not apply to everyone, however. The country’s largest industries and mines continue to experience service suspensions of as much as 18 hours a day. The terms of the suspensions have been modified since they were first announced but the government says they will continue through December 30. According to estimates, the largest industries and mines consume more than 25% of the country’s energy.
Most energy experts say it is too soon to end blackouts but acknowledge increased rainfall since mid-November has improved conditions at the country’s largest hydroelectric facilities. Last week, the Coca Coda Sinclair and the three plants at the Paute-Mazar complex have produced more than 1,800 megawatts of power on most days, about half of the national demand.
The increased production has allowed the Energy Ministry to reduce the amount of electricity it receives from Colombia.
“The situation is better than it was, but the drought is not over, and the crisis continues,” says Fernando Salinas, former president of the Pichincha College of Electrical Engineers. “Hydrological conditions are improving but for this to continue depends entirely on receiving more rainfall. The forecast is favorable but the meteorological institute has been predicting heavy rain all week and this has not materialized.”
Salinas and others acknowledge that the coming election campaign is probably playing a role in the decision to end blackouts. “It is understandable to suspend blackouts for the holidays. The big question is, can the suspension continue for six weeks, until the election.”
