Crime and insecurity are driving support for a ‘yes’ vote on Noboa’s referendum questions, polls show

According to five polls released last week, all four of President Daniel Noboa’s referendum questions are headed for passage in next Sunday’s election. Pollsters say the country’s crime wave and fear for personal safety are the primary factors supporting the “yes” vote.

President Daniel Noboa

A secondary factor, they say, is Noboa’s popularity and his perceived “strongman” image.

In the polls, all four questions were favored by margins ranging from 9% to 21%, with only one exception.

A composite of the polls shows the question to allow a foreign military base in Ecuador is favored by a 9% margin; the question to end public campaign financing, by 14%; the question to reduce the number of members in the National Assembly, by 17%; and the question to convene a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution, by 11%.

The exception to a total “yes” vote came in the poll conducted by the Clima public opinion group, which found the “no” vote for military base leading by 7% but with 22% of those polled saying they were still undecided.

“In almost all opinion surveys taken in recent months, Ecuadorians say crime and insecurity are their number one concern,” says Polibio Córdova, director of the Cedatos poll. “The public sees two of the four questions, for the foreign military presence and for the rewriting of the constitution, related to this concern. A majority also seem to like Noboa’s strongman approach to crime.”

Ironically, says Córdova, crime numbers have gotten worse since Noboa announced his war on drug trafficking and illegal mining. “Despite this, the public believes he is on the right path, especially if he can enlist military support from the U.S., and voters are willing support all his referendum questions.”

In an interview on Teleamazonas, Córdova said that the referendum serves as a kind of “popularity contest” for the president. “In 2023 we saw all eight of [former president Guillermo] Lasso’s referendum questions defeated,” Córdova says. “At the time of that election, Lasso’s favorable rating was 23%, and the Correistas and indigenous movement led a successful “no” vote campaign. Today, Noboa rates about 50%, and even though the Correistas and Conaie are again campaigning for the ‘no,’ it appears they will fail.”

Pollster for Clima, Jorge Chimbo, believes there has been some “movement” against the constitutional revision question in the past two weeks, but that it has amounted to only a 2% to 3% change. “Noboa’s comments on moving Social Security health care to the Ministry of Health alarmed some IESS members but the damage is limited, and it appears that the question will pass.”

Chimbo adds that voters appear to believe Noboa’s comments that he favors maintaining language supporting the rights of nature contained in the current constitution.