Ecuador, Colombia relations expected to improve with the election of new Colombian president

“Ecuador and Colombia will once again be partners in the fight against organized crime,” President Daniel Noboa said Tuesday following the apparent election of conservative Abelardo de la Espriella as president of Colombia. With 99.99% of votes counted, de la Espriella leads leftist Iván Cepeda by 251,000 votes, about 1% of votes cast in Sunday’s election.

An Abelardo de la Espriella campaign poster hangs on fence in Bogota.

Although Cepeda is challenging the result, several teams of election observers, including one from the European Union, say the election was orderly and fair. Cepeda is the protégé of current President Gustavo Petro, who leaves office August 7.

During the campaign, de la Espriella endorsed Noboa’s “iron fist” approach to drug trafficking and organized crime, saying that cocaine production in Colombia was responsible for high crime rates in Ecuador. “Ecuador was a peaceful country until cocaine from Colombia began flowing south to Guayaquil,” de la Espriella said. “It is time we attack the problem in our country and work with Ecuador to restore order in theirs.”

De la Espriella has blamed previous presidents, including Petro, for allowing cocaine production to grow to record levels. “For decades, Colombia has accommodated the drug cartels, making deals that were never honored,” he said. “It is said that 15% of our country is controlled by traffickers and it is time we regain the homeland.”

Among de la Espriella’s proposals are to fumigate 330,000 hectares of coca crops and double the number of military operations to dismantle cocaine production labs. He also plans to construct “mega prisons” to house the thousands of “drug criminals” he pledges to arrest. “We will end the ‘Total Peace” program the current government has supported because it has not resulted in peace,” he said.

In personal and phone conversations with Noboa, de la Espriella has promised to double the number or military troops and police near the border with Ecuador and actively cooperate with Ecuadorian forces. According to the United Nations drug office, more than half of Colombian cocaine is produced in the Putumayo, Cauca and Nariño states, which border Ecuador.

Ecuador Army General Wagner Bravo welcomes de la Espriella’s change of direction but cautions that it is “only words” at this point. “We have heard much of this before, so we need to see the plan put into action,” he said.

According to Bravo, military cooperation near the border could yield “quick results” if it is managed correctly. “The details of the cooperation are critical, especially in intelligence sharing and working to disrupt the routes traffickers use to move cocaine to Ecuadorian ports.”

If cooperation is not effective and if the border is not secured, Bravo says, Ecuador could see an influx of drug traffickers escaping a Colombian crack-down. “If his [de la Espriella’s] anti-crime plan focuses primarily on mass arrests, it could be bad news for Ecuador.”

Former head of the Joint Military Command General Paco Moncayo says a new strategy against cocaine trafficking must be multi-national. “Working together, Colombia and Ecuador can disrupt the production chain and transport routes but without the active cooperation of the nations that consume cocaine the problem will not be solved. “We must have the United States and Europe collaborate in this project, since they are the user nations and the market for the drug.”

Like Bravo, Moncayo says we are “long way” from seeing solid results. “The new president will have to work with a politically divided congress, and this could delay implementation of his plans.”