El Niño could mean $1.3 billion in ag losses; Noboa’s support drops to 26% in new poll; Court supports new state of emergency; Noboa opposes recall effort

The Ministry of Agriculture presented estimates that the developing El Niño could cause $1.3 billion in agricultural and aquaculture losses in Manabí, Guayas and Los Ríos Provinces. The ministry said floods will affect up to two million hectares of crops as well as shrimp production operations on the coast.

“The El Niño phenomenon continues to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean and forecasts agree it will be one of the strongest weather systems to affect Ecuador in many years,” the ministry said, adding that it will adjust its damage estimate as the system develops.

The government says it is preparing for El Niño damage to agricultural crops and the possible loss of hydroelectric generation at the Mazar complex in Azuay Province.

Last week, the Energy Ministry said emergency steps are being put in place to protect the country’s power generation capacity in preparation for El Niño. It said an extended drought in the sierra and central valley could “significantly reduce” power production at the Mazar hydroelectric complex in eastern Azuay Province. The complex produces almost 40% of the country’s electricity.

Forecasters predict Ecuador could begin to feel the effects of El Niño in late October or November but that the greatest impacts will be felt from January to March 2027.

Noboa’s support drops to 26% in new poll
As public dissatisfaction with the lack of progress in the government’s fight against crime grows, President Daniel Noboa’s public support has dipped to 26%. In a poll taken at the end of June by the Center for Research and Specialized Studies, respondents also complained about the state of the economy and government corruption.

The poll showed that only 22% of respondents are “optimistic” about the state of the country, down from 37% in January.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents listed crime as the country’s biggest problem while 22% say it’s the economy and 17% name government corruption and mismanagement.

Court supports new state of emergency
The Constitutional Court has declared constitutional the state of emergency decreed by President Daniel Noboa in ten provinces and three municipalities on June 16. The courts said that high levels of organized crime and violence justified the order.

Azuay Province is among provinces included in the 60-day declaration.

Under a state of emergency, the right of inviolability of private homes is suspended as well as other rights involving search and seizure of property by law enforcement agencies.

Although the state of emergency permits the use the armed forces to conduct street patrols, the court limited their involvement in arrests and searches to Guayas, Manabí, El Oro and Los Ríos Provinces.

Noboa opposes recall effort
President Daniel Noboa says he will fight any attempt for a recall election, announcing he plans to seek a second full term in the 2029 election. On June 9, seven labor, social and indigenous organizations filed their intent to collect signatures for a recall election with the National Electoral Council.

Noboa called the recall attempt “bogus and unnecessary” and said he will file documentation with the CNE to stop the collection of petitions. “While some talk of recall, we talk of reelection,” Noboa said in a radio interview. “I plan to continue my government’s work of impressive progress to improve the lives of the citizens of Ecuador.