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February election will mean big changes for Ecuador; What will it mean for expats?

To understand what’s at stake in next month’s presidential election, it’s important to first consider Rafael Correa’s enormous impact on Ecuador. The election will be, in large part, a referendum on his presidency.

It’s also important to understand that Correa’s former vice president and heir apparent, Lenin Moreno, could steer the country on a dramatically different course.

Despite recent headwinds to his candidacy, Moreno remains the man to beat in the seven-man, one-woman presidential field.

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The election brings to an end Correa’s 10-year presidency, a tenure remarkable not just for the dramatic changes it has made to the country, but for the fact that it followed a decade in which five mostly ineffective presidents were unable to finish a single four-year term. Two of those presidents were literally run out of town with a mob in hot pursuit.

Lenin Moreno, President Rafael Correa, and Jorge Glas.

Beyond its longevity, the Correa presidency is notable as a period of unparalleled growth and development. Thanks to high oil prices and a leftist vision of modernization, Ecuador embarked on a program of massive infrastructure projects, building and upgrading highways, bridges, ports, hospitals, schools, and airports, and hydroelectric projects, and providing billions for large public transportation projects in Quito, Guayaquil, and Cuenca.

In the span of less than six years, Ecuador went from middle-of-the-pack among Latin American countries in infrastructure quality to rank among the top three.

During the same period, the country invested heavily in social welfare projects, impressively reducing the rates of poverty and violent crime, doubling per-student funding for public education, and almost tripling spending on public health care.

There are, however, glaring shortcomings in Correa’s long reign. His efforts to concentrate power and to extend government regulation over a broadening range of Ecuadorian life, mostly coming during his current term in office, have created a backlash not just from the opposition, both of the left and right, but from his grassroots supporters. His suspicion of “civil society” and efforts to control it by banning non-profit organizations and threatening private individuals and the media have led to international as well as local condemnation.

At the heart of Correa’s vision for Ecuador, it seems clear, is his belief that he alone is correct and that those who oppose him are infidels and traitors. He believes absolutely in absolute power so long as he’s in charge.

This is the inescapable backdrop of the presidential election, and, to a certain extent, the mantle that Lenin Moreno must carry.

Duality serves Moreno well

Moreno’s advantage in the election is that, as Correa’s former vice president,  he can share credit for some of the administration’s accomplishments. On the other hand, he can, quite literally, play the role of the outsider. Following his term as vice president, Moreno lived out of the country for six years, serving as the United Nations Special Advocate for the Disabled. To his supporters, most of whom object to Correa’s management style, Moreno is the agent for change. When Moreno returned home from Geneva to accept the País nomination, his supporters lining the highway outside the Quito airport held signs that said, “More of the same, but with change.”

Moreno also has the considerable advantage, predating the Correa presidency, of being likeable. Correa has always been the stinker.

Although Moreno has clear differences with Correa on political issues such as freedom of the press, civil society, taxes and business regulation, some of which he has publicly voiced, his biggest difference is in temperament. While the arrogant, thin-skinned Correa thinks nothing of calling his adversaries terrorists, punks, fatsos, and homosexuals, Moreno has been known to send political opponents birthday and get-well cards.

According to political insiders, Correa would have preferred his current vice president, Jorge Glas, to be País’s presidential candidate instead of its vice presidential candidate. He was forced to settle on Moreno for the simple fact that he realized Glas couldn’t win.

The campaign

Of the eight presidential candidates certified by Ecuador’s election council, four can be considered legitimate contenders with Moreno leading the pack at this point.

Conservative Lasso and socialist Tiko Tiko exchange ideas.

The contenders are Guayaquil banker Guillermo Lasso, Guayaquil attorney and National Assembly member Cynthia Viteri, and former Quito Mayor Paco Moncayo. Politically, Lasso and Viteri are considered center-right, while Moncayo is center-left, but agrees with Lasso and Viteri on a number of tax, civil liberties, and regulatory issues.

An average of the most recent polls show Moreno’s support at 35%, Lasso’s at 20%, Viteri’s at 13%, and Moncayo’s at 9%.

Running second and third to Moreno, Lasso and Viteri appear to constitute the biggest challenge. If the election requires a run-off, which it would if Moreno fails to win a majority, or 40% with a 10% advantage over his nearest rival, it seems logical that the loser between Lasso and Viteri would support the other to form a solid conservative front.

This, however, is Ecuador and such logic does not necessarily apply. Lasso and Viteri — who many consider a proxy for Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot — hate each other and the loser could just as easily throw his or her support to Moreno in a run-off.

Dangers to Moreno’s campaign

The immediate challenge for Moreno is to weather the unfolding Petroecuador and Odebrecht bribery scandals dogging the Correa administration. They have already cost him several points of support. Although it appears that Moreno’s hands are clean, this may not be the case with running mate Glas.

Despite his relative independence from Correa, Moreno chose to be the standard-bearer of Alianza País, the party Correa created, and must bear some of the responsibility for its actions.

What does it all mean for expats?

Foreign residents are not an issue in the campaign and will probably not become one in the next six weeks. For years, beginning long before the Correa presidency, Ecuador has been extraordinarily welcoming to foreigners and this is unlikely to change.

For the most part, Ecuadorians and expats have similar interests, with the economy and political and civil stability at the top of the list. Given market forces that are out of their control, it appears unlikely that any of the candidates would have an immediate impact on the economy; the recession may have bottomed-out but the recovery will be slow no matter who wins the election.

Most of us would prefer a ratcheting back of the government-knows-best mentality and the condescending rhetoric that goes with it. Surely, the conflict surrounding the Chinese copper mine in San Carlos Panantza, east of Cuenca, could have been better managed.

Most of us would prefer a simplification of rules that govern businesses and private interactions with the government (in other words, cut the red tape!). Those of us with investments would prefer a clarification and, in some cases, a reduction of taxes.

Most expats, I believe, are best served with more of the same, but with change.

To read an earlier column by David Morrill about the Rafael Correa presidency, click here.


27 thoughts on “February election will mean big changes for Ecuador; What will it mean for expats?

  1. Thanks for a good, substantive well-balanced piece.
    David Morrill, your judgement, experience in Ecuador, good writing and well-balanced approach are appreciated during these times when opinion makers seem pretty confused.

  2. Good job, David. You nailed it!
    Let’s hope the new administration is more “business friendly”.

  3. First and foremost, President Correa loves Ecuador. He has brought the country new roads, airports, etc. to improve the quality of life in his
    native country. Yes, he is thin-skinned and somewhat arrogant…but these qualities are similar to many world leaders. A leader must lead…not follow & has to believe that he is right. I am an expat and have no particular favorites in Ecuadorian politics, but progress is
    progress…and I have seen that the past few years. We all must not forget one inescapable fact: that the oil priced at $100+ per barrel is
    what has allowed Ecuador to build these infrastructure improvements. Also, China…during the world economic downturn…expanded it’s reach throughout the world…economically tying many countries to
    much stronger business relationships with itself. The U.S. shrank
    it’s involvement in world affairs and the Chinese expanded their presence, economically. Yes, the lower oil prices today have put
    Ecuador in a difficult economic situation, but all things change…as we see the price of crude rising as I type this. As far as how a new Presidente affects expats…I see no change. We expats pour a lot
    of dollars into the economy(especially in dining and entertainment).
    Life goes on, irregardless of who is El Presidente.
    Feliz Año Nuevo a todos !

    1. Jojo Ud tiene razon en muchos aspectos pero si cuando las arcas del estado estan llenas y no se les da el uso apropiado alli es cuando vienen los problemas como en tiempos pasados. Espero los que entindan español me respondan. gracias.

      1. Sra./Srta Koralys, su idea es cierto pero más simplificado. Problemas de estado puede surgir si los estados cofres están llenos o vacíos. La cuestión es la honestidad y la integridad de las personas en posiciones de liderazgo. En ese sentido, todo lo que podemos hacer es esperar lo mejor.

    2. Life goes on, but what life and how does it go on? To say life goes on is to say, “Who cares, we eat out and dine out and have fun.” Typical ex pat

  4. Great summary, thanks… sounds like it will work except for this VP guy, Glas- he makes me nervous. Maybe Moreno, whom I support, could grow a set and pick someone else for VP? Happy New Year everyone!

  5. Excellent article David. One thing I have wondered about and that is why the National government or maybe it’s more of a local issue hasn’t set up some kind of program for people interested in moving here. While CHL and other publications are helpful to expats it seems to me that many issues facing expats before they come here as well as after could be better served by some kind of outreach program by the Cuenca Municipo. There are two specific things that we bring to Cuenca. First is a lot of money. If you conservatively estimate there are 5000 expats here at say an average of $1000 that’s $5 million a month jcoming into the local economy. Also many expats have lots of business experience and could consult with local businesses on better way to conduct business. The Municipo could then be a clearing house for a lot of questions especially from those who are interested in coming here and also give incentives for expats to move here. For example Panama not only encourages expats to come there but gives them residency free of charge. If this was done here then all the confusion over many imitation rules etc could be handled easier. I quite frankly was appalled when the immigration office was moved to Asogues. Lastly the one thing that we can do better then Ecuadorians is speak English. I am sure many expats would volunteer to interact with Ecuadorians who wanted to practice their English. This would also faciliate better interaction between the two cultures.

    1. yo ire a Cuenca pronto y estaria dispuesta a hablar español con todo el que quiera aprender. clases de conversacion

    2. There have been many programs sponsored by Cuenca mayor to facilitate interactions between expats and locals. I am certainly no genius, but I studied on the internet for several months before I arrived, and was able to get enough information that I made the move with no prior visit. It’s out there if people want to do the work to find information. The last thing locals want is some expat coming in and telling them how to run their businesses. The inefficiencies we see from a N. American perspective work just fine for them. From what I read recently, the largest number of expats are now from other S. American countries. I do believe it would serve the tourism business to have more English language signs and printed materials (for example, in the museums) but I hope that is coming soon. Great article, David. Thanks!

    3. Ecuador is under attack from US imperialism so you will have to wait for your ex pat programs. The people of Ecuador are far more important.

  6. Let us not forget that the present President also said that socialism requires capitalism in order to work (to fund socialism, redistribution of wealth is necessary).
    Please explain: “…more of the same, but with change.” Can’t have it both ways! Should it be “some more of the same but with changes”?

    1. The author has no idea of what he is talking about which is why you see no elaboration of ‘changes’.

  7. Which candidates support reducing import taxes on consumer goods like cars, motorcycles, electronics, booze (i.e. the Euro trade deal) and loosening government strangulation of small/medium size business? My questions are purely selfish…I know.

  8. Somebody who have lived in Geneva for six years, must have some ideas about how to change the country in the right direction.

  9. Be very careful when you overgeneralize and say “most expats would support less government or red tape”. Most ex pats have no idea of what is going on in Ecuador and your article, though it has some facts, is an example.

    Ecuador is crawling with CIA.

    It also has 92% of the media concentrated in the hands of the oligarchs. They use Tamia news or Mil Hojas, a fake news site they started in Panama, to blast Correa. The NED and USAID, CIA fronts, supplied the backing and funds, as did the criminal Isais brothers living as fugitive millionaires in Miami. I wrote about this here:

    You can go here:

    There is a button to translate this article.

    Your comments on Correa are out of line. “A stinker”? Why, what does this mean and what proof do you have? Childish.

    If the oligarchs return to power, you will see massive sell-off of public industry, basic services and the privatization of almost everything. This will mean a descent into poverty for most, as costs rise and corporations take over government functions. And it will mean American imperialism once again will land in Latin America looking to set up Pinochet type governments.

    Candidate Lasso has $125,000,000 in Panama fiscal paradises. Ten companies he owns are outside of Ecuador to avoid taxes. You never mention this at all. Nor do you not mention the work between the Isaias brothers and the right wing in Miami seeking to overthrow the government.

    With neo liberalism failing all over the world, it is tragic to see no mention of capitalism or neo liberal capitalism and the devastating effects on Latin America, especially Ecuador.

    The article is bereft of facts and laced with opinions. And when you make claims that Correa wanted Glas for president, where is your evidence? In fact, where is your evidence for any of the claims you make?

    Poor article, bad news, incomplete and biased.

    As to effecting ex pats: if they care about Ecuadorians, about global capitalism, about authoritarianism, about fascism returning to Latin America then yes, they will be effected. But if they are only interested in where to go to eat or what is on sale at Supermaxi they won’t.

    We need to educate ex pats with news about what is going on in Ecuador. This article does a dis-service.

  10. So sad that the censorship displayed by the US is within the minds of the ex pats here in Ecuador. Thank goodness there are not many. I wonder if the author of this article understands that most Americans here are economic refugees just like Muslims in Europe or Mexicans in the US. The only difference is they have money. But they are refugees and there is no doubt of this. And there will be more as capitalism melts further down globally. You cannot show me or anyone else one capitalist country that is not failing in the world. All of them are. The challenge is to build a global socialist movement. For if not, climate change and war will be our epitaph.

    Too bad this site or whoever the censors are would not post my previous comments on this poorly written article. But alas, fake news and censorship is prevalent even in these type of forums.

    1. Good article. Very informative,
      I am new in Ecuador, married an Ecuadoriana and plan to stay for the rest of mi life. Will get my cedula just before the election and totally ignorant of the local politic.
      Yjank again for the inside info , very illuminating.

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