Four presidential election polls released on Monday and Tuesday give Lenin Moreno the lead over Guillermo Lasso going into the April 2 presidential runoff. Under Ecuadorian election law, no new poll results can be released after today.
The biggest surprise in the new polling results is that Cedatos-Gallup has flipped to Moreno. After the February 19 vote, Cedatos was the only poll to give Lasso the lead.
The polls show that between 7% and 21% of voters remain undecided, substantially below the 40% before the February 19 election. Although voters are allowed to cast “no” votes, indicating that they will vote for neither Moreno or Lasso, pollsters say most will end up voting for one of the two.
The new Cedatos poll gives Moreno a 52.4% to 47.6% lead over Lasso. The numbers indicate a major shift from a week ago when Cedatos showed Lasso with a 50.8% to 49.2% lead. Three weeks earlier, Cedators gave Lasso a larger 52.1% to 47.9% advantage. Factoring in the undecided voters in the Cedatos poll, Moreno enjoyed a 45.7% to 41.5% lead.
The new Opinion Profiles poll gives Moreno a 57.6% to 42.4% advantage while CMS showed the race 52.3% for Moreno vs 47.7% for Lasso. The fourth poll, Market, had the race 52.9% to 47.1, Moreno.
According to pollster Santiago Cuesta, vice president at CMS, voters are much more sure of their vote in the runoff. “On February 19, there were eight candidates to choose from, which left many voters confused,” he said. “We are also seeing a solidification of support for Lenin Moreno as the election approaches.”