In ‘Christmas surprise,’ Noboa says blackouts will end December 20 but the experts are skeptical

President Daniel Noboa announced Tuesday that electrical blackouts will end December 20. He credited improving weather conditions and the addition of new power sources for the decision.

President Daniel Noboa

Energy experts, including former Energy Ministry officials, expressed skepticism about whether the end date can be kept or if the suspension of blackouts can be maintained beyond the holidays.

In his announcement, Noboa said the “return to seasonal rains,” the addition of new thermal power production and purchases from Colombia mean the blackouts will soon be over. He said his government has added almost 700 megawatts of thermally generated electricity to the power grid since September and said more is on the way. In addition, he said the new Toachi Pilatón hydro plant will add as much as 204 megawatts when it is fully operational in January or February.

From late December through February, he said another 500 to 600 megawatts will come on line.

Noboa again placed the blame for the energy crisis on the weather and previous governments. “We are facing the results of climate change that has been ignored in the past,” he said. “We are also suffering from the inaction of the past three governments for not filling commitments to build the power plants needed for the future.”

Former deputy minister of energy Nivaldo Córdova said it was far too early to declare the energy crisis over. “I agree with the president that things are improving, both with the addition of new power sources and the weather, but I think we are two or three months away from returning to a sustainable situation,” he said. “Based on continuing rainfall, I believe it’s possible to eliminate blackouts during the holidays but I question whether this can continue into January.”

Córdova added: “The president’s decision is probably influenced by the coming election.”

Milton López, a former consulting engineer with the National Electric Corporation (CNEL EP), was more blunt. “I am afraid the president’s decision is motivated by politics, not by the reality of the situation. For the sake of the country, I hope we get days and days of rain that fill the Mazar pond and he is able to keep his promise. It’s a nice Christmas surprise but I question whether he can keep his word in January.”