The latest polls in Ecuador’s presidential race show little change over the past month, with Alianza País candidate Lenin Moreno continuing to lead his nearest challenger by at least 10%. Polls also indicate that a large number of voters remain undecided and suggest that no candidate will win on the first ballot, February 19.
The Opinión Pública polling organization shows 34% support for Moreno with conservative Guayaquil banker Guillermo Lasso (CREO) second at 18.2%, followed by center-conservative Cynthia Viteri (Christian Democrat) with 8.9%. Leftist Paco Moncayo has 6% support while none of the other four candidates register above 3%.
The Cedatos-Gallup survey shows similar results with Moreno at 34.3%, but boosts Lasso’s support to 22.9% and Viteri’s to 11.4%.
The Market voter survey, which shows the highest number of undecided and “no” voters, puts Moreno at 28.1% but has Viteri in second at 17.9%, Lasso at 16.5% and Moncayo at 13.2%.
To avoid a run-off, the leading candidate must receive 50% plus-one of the vote, or 40% with a lead of 10% over the second-place finisher. A run-off election will be April 2, if needed.
According to polling analysts, Moreno’s support has dropped by an average of 5% since October but appears to have stabilized since early December. Mario Ramos says that there is a consensus that Moreno must poll over 35% in February 19 voting to be in good position to win the run-off. “If he is in the low 30% range he will be in trouble,” he says.