The latest polls in Ecuador’s presidential race show little change over the past month, with Alianza País candidate Lenin Moreno continuing to lead his nearest challenger by at least 10%. Polls also indicate that a large number of voters remain undecided and suggest that no candidate will win on the first ballot, February 19.
Lenin Moreno campaigns in Quito.
The Opinión Pública polling organization shows 34% support for Moreno with conservative Guayaquil banker Guillermo Lasso (CREO) second at 18.2%, followed by center-conservative Cynthia Viteri (Christian Democrat) with 8.9%. Leftist Paco Moncayo has 6% support while none of the other four candidates register above 3%.
The Cedatos-Gallup survey shows similar results with Moreno at 34.3%, but boosts Lasso’s support to 22.9% and Viteri’s to 11.4%.
The Market voter survey, which shows the highest number of undecided and “no” voters, puts Moreno at 28.1% but has Viteri in second at 17.9%, Lasso at 16.5% and Moncayo at 13.2%.
To avoid a run-off, the leading candidate must receive 50% plus-one of the vote, or 40% with a lead of 10% over the second-place finisher. A run-off election will be April 2, if needed.
According to polling analysts, Moreno’s support has dropped by an average of 5% since October but appears to have stabilized since early December. Mario Ramos says that there is a consensus that Moreno must poll over 35% in February 19 voting to be in good position to win the run-off. “If he is in the low 30% range he will be in trouble,” he says.
