Null and blank votes in February 9 election could decide the runoff between Noboa and González

Despite media speculation about who voters for defeated presidential candidates in the February 9 election will support in the April 13 runoff, some experts believe another group of voters could provide the winning margin.

Who will the “nulo” and blank voters chose in the April 19 runoff? It’s anyone’s guess, according to one expert.

Voters go to the polls again in less than a month to choose between first-round leaders President Daniel Noboa and Luisa González, with both candidates needing to pick up less than 6% more votes to win.

“With interest focused on how the supporters of Leonidas Iza and Andrea González, as well as the others, will vote in the runoff, people forget that there were more than a million voters who didn’t vote for anyone in February and most of them will make a choice in the runoff,” says former National Assembly member Rafael Iglesias. “I’m surprised this group has received so little attention in discussions about the runoff.

In the Election Council’s final count, Noboa led Luisa González by less than 17,000 votes on February 9.

Of all voters in that election, 6.9% voted “nulo”, or null, and 2.2% left their ballots blank — a total 1.17 million voters.

Many of those who voted nulo or left ballots blank in the general election were overwhelmed by the number of candidates and parties to choose from, says Iglesias, who was an Assmeblyman for the old Alianza Pais party. “Based on surveys of past elections, most of those had little interest in the election and only showed up to vote because it was obligatory. But in the runoff, even though their interest is still low, they have a simple choice between two candidates, so they will vote.”

Who will those voters choose April 13? “In all honestly, I have no idea,” Iglesias says. “In the 2023 election, they supported Noboa but the circumstances are different this time and they could easily go the other way.”

Iglesias believes González will have a small advantage in the runoff among voters for the defeated candidates. “I think the Pachakutic supporters will tip the scales among these voters, but not by much,” he says. “This is why the blank and nulos from February are so important.”