Presidential race likely headed to a runoff

New polls suggest that Ecuador’s presidential race is headed to a runoff. According to pollster Numma, Luisa González holds the lead at 33.8% in the field of eight candidates. Former vice president Otto Sonnenholzner is second with 17.5% followed by Yaku Pérez at 15.1%.

Luisa González

The election is scheduled for August 20 with a runoff, if necessary, set for October 15.

Three other polls show a tighter race, with González averaging 31% support with Pérez at 22% and Sonnenholzner at 20%.

Gonzalez represents the Citizens Revolution party, founded by former president Rafael Correa, while Sonnenholzner and Perez are supported by coalitions of parties. Ideologically, González and Pérez are considered center-leftists while Sonnenholzner represents the center-right.

The Numma poll showed that 31% of the sample favored a “return to Correismo” under Gonzalez although more than 20% of voters said they would never support a candidate supported by Correa.

Under Ecuador election rules, a candidate must receive 50%-plus-one of the vote or 40% with a 10% lead over the runner-up for an outright victory.