Despite his evasiveness on the subject, it has been widely accepted that President Rafael Correa will seek a third full term as Ecuador’s president. That view may be changing.
In recent interviews, Correa sounds more and more like man who has had enough of political life. He also sounds increasingly confident that another candidate from his Alianza Pais party can win in the 2017 general election and continue the work he has started.
In the past, Correa has maintained that he stood ready to run again but only if no other Pais party candidate emerged to replace him.
Two weeks ago, in an interview with Forbes Magazine, Correa said he saw no need to run again. “Because [the] opposition is so fragmented, without any leadership, I think another candidate from our party will be able to win the election.” (Click here to read the article.)
Rafael Ramirez who worked on Correa’s 2006 presidential campaign thinks Correa is right. “I think Pais can hold the presidency for no other reason than that its opponents are so divided,” Ramirez says. “I say this knowing that the next year will be difficult and that Correa could lose some of the support he currently enjoys.”
“Correa’s opponents on the right and the left will never unite behind a common candidate and because they will support their own candidates, they will divide their vote,” Ramirez says.
Ramirez says that Correa has personal issues that support a decision not to stay in the presidency. “He has said on a number of occasions that he has promised his wife that he won’t run again and that the family will move to Belgium once he is out office. His wife is from Belgium and Correa has a standing offer to join the faculty of a university in Brussels.”
Ramirez adds: “Of course, whether he runs again or not depends on the National Assembly approving the constitutional amendment that ends term limits. It has been foregone conclusion that this will happen but these are strange political times and if he decides absolutely not to run, it is possible that the amendment might not go forward.”