What was actually accomplished during Marco Rubio’s visit? Some say a lot, others say not much

Although President Daniel Noboa is calling last week’s visit by U. S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio a “fabulous success,” others claim that little was actually accomplished.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio waves before he left Quito last week.

“He [Noboa] is saying that the U.S. declaration of the Los Lobos and Los Choneros gangs as terrorist organizations was the most relevant result of the meetings, but what does that really mean for combatting drug violence in Ecuador?” asks economist and political commentator Santiago García. “I agree these are dangerous, murderous groups and that they have connections with Mexican cartels, but who knows if they have significant assets up there or not? And if they do, and if those are confiscated, how does it help us here in Ecuador.”

According to García. there are “far too many loose ends” from last week’s talks to declare them a success. “A much bigger issue than labeling the gangs, of course, is what the U.S. is willing to do if voters approve the return of foreign military bases in the country. Rubio only said the U.S. would weigh its options in that case.”

Defending claims of success following Rubio’s visit, political science professor Pablo Medina considers Rubio’s visit and subsequent comments a “political endorsement” of Noboa’s campaign against criminal groups. “Obviously, details of the talks regarding the response to criminals cannot be revealed,” Medina says. “Why would you announce your plans for confronting the enemy before they are executed? The important point is that the U.S. is on Ecuador’s side and I believe we will see the full extent of the support in the near future.”

On the subject of a U.S. military installation on Ecuadorian soil, Medina says there is no point in speculating on it until after the referendum. “If voters approve it, then we can talk about it,” he says. “Otherwise, it’s wasted wind.”

Although García claims the $19.5 million Rubio committed to Ecuador to monitor movement of drug shipments as “inconsequential,” Medina says it signals “much greater investments ahead.”

“Yes, it is a small amount, but it proves a commitment to the fight,” Medina says. “Again, the inside information cannot be announced publicly but it is my understanding that those details include major contributions to come.”

For García, the $19.5 million will achieve little. “Let’s remember that Noboa raised almost $250 million for fighting drug gangs when he increased the VAT to 15%,” García says. “What did that accomplish? Crime on the coastal drug routes is worse today than ever.”

While Medina insists Ecuador’s agreement to accept 300 U.S. deportees annually was a “good faith gesture,” García believes it was an act of fealty. “Based on the 300 number, if that is in fact the final total, I don’t think it will have much of an impact on the country but, on the other hand, why are we handling the dirty details for the U.S.? As I understand it, most of the migrants will be sent to their home countries anyway and only a few will stay in Ecuador awaiting asylum reviews.”

Although García agrees with Medina that the 15% tariff on exports to the U.S. will be reduced and possibly eliminated, he says this was in the works before the Rubio visit. “Some sort of agreement was made two weeks ago from what I hear, although we won’t know the details until it is announced,” García said. “This was unrelated to the visit.”