Who cares about the election? 59% of eligible voters say they would not vote if they had the option

By Sylvan Hardy

In more than a quarter century of monitoring Ecuador elections, political analyst Juan Carlos Donoso says he has never seen so little voter interest in an election. “It is almost a cliché to talk about voter apathy since it’s a factor in every election, but the lack of interest in the February 9 election is extreme.”

The drought and power blackouts could have been big issues in the presidential campaign but they are now “off the table” as a result of recent rain.

Donoso, who provides public opinion and demographic information to political parties and candidates, cites two groups of statistics that illustrate his point.

In a voter poll taken last week, 59% of eligible voters said they would not vote if they had the option. By law, all citizens over the age of 16 are required to vote.

In four other polls Dononso follows, one public and three private, between 57% and 62% of voters said they were undecided about who they will vote for in the presidential and National Assembly races.

According to Donoso, the lack of election interest explains the fact that only two of the 16 presidential candidates register more than 4% support in any of the polls. “The polls show [President Daniel] Noboa and Citizens Revolution [Luisa] González far ahead when respondents are forced to make a choice” he says. “This is a clear indication that the public is paying little attention to the election since they gravitate to the most popular names, the top two candidates from last year’s election. Apathy always favors incumbents and their most popular opponents.”

Many of the poorly performing 14 candidates are pinning their hopes on voters who say they are undecided, but Donoso believes the hope is misplaced. “The large number of undecideds is a reflection of apathy, not that people are studying the candidates’ positions and have not made up their minds. What it mostly means is that they don’t care.”

Donoso says poll numbers will change once the campaign officially begins next week but doesn’t believe it will dislodge Noboa and González at the top. “It is sad that some of the other candidates have strong positions on important issues that should be discussed and debated. Unfortunately, their positions are not getting the attention they deserve.”

According to Donoso, the complexion of the race between Noboa and González changed with the end of power blackouts. “Had the suspensions continued into the campaign, or if they resumed during the campaign, they would have been a big issue, but now, with those over and with the rain restoring hydro generation, it’s off the table at least through the election.”

So what are the major topics in the presidential race? “Like last year, it’s still security and the threat from organized crime,” Donoso says. “After that, it’s the perennial issues of the poor economy and lack of good jobs.”

Donoso expects there will be runoff election between Noboa and González but says it’s not a sure thing. “The end of blackouts was an obvious boost for Noboa and one poll taken over the weekend shows him winning outright in the first election,” he says. “González is a good campaigner, however, and I expect her to force a second vote.”