It’s back to school this week for 1.7 million students but officials worry about the empty seats

Although the beginning a new school year is traditionally a time of renewed expectations, Ecuador education experts say that in recent years it is also a reminder of a problem without a solution. The number of students is dropping – and rapidly — due to declining birthrates.

More than 1.7 million public and private school students return to class this week in the Sierra and Amazonia regions of the country. At the same time ten years ago, in 2015, 2.2 million students returned.

More than 1.7 million public and private school children return to class this week in the Sierra and Amazon regions.

“There is no mystery why there are less students, but the question is how do we manage the fact that the numbers will probably continue to decline,” says former Education Minister Roberto Gonzales. “Administrators will soon have to make very hard decisions, such as closing schools and reducing staff. So far, little planning has been done in this regard.”

Ecuador’s census office reports that in 2014 there were 18.3 live births per 1,000 women while in 2024 the number dropped to 12.1. It added that there were 330,000 live births in 2010 compared to 160,000 in 2024, the lowest total since 1988.

“This is a rapid change that effects many institutions, not just the schools,” says University of Guayaquil education professor Marcus Miller, who points out the drop in Ecuador’s birthrate mirrors those in other Latin American countries. “This is a worldwide phenomenon, in fact, and is very alarming for almost all governments.”

Miller agrees with Gonzalez that little has been done to plan for a continuing drop in enrollment. “We have become accustomed to growth,” says Miller. “It goes against our nature to say, okay, we are now in decline and this will not change for the foreseeable future. The reality, however, is that we must make decisions based on the downward trend.”

According to Miller, too many in education management hold out hope the birthrate decline will stop and even turn around. “It is true that much of the decline is related to lifestyle choices, women entering the workforce and having babies later, so yes, this could change. However, the research shows that infertility rates are also dropping for biological reasons, probably related to environmental factors. Male sperm count has dropped 60% in 50 years and women are producing more infertile eggs. These factors cannot be ignored.”

The Education Ministry reports the drop in enrollment is affecting public and private schools equally. Enrollment in private schools, which are expecting about 320,000 students September 1 in the Sierra and Amazonia, is down 50,000 since 2023.