Observers see no election irregularities; More than 1,000 Ecuadorians deported; Country risk rises; CNE warns of ‘premature’ National Assembly projections

Despite claims of fraud by President Daniel Noboa and challenger Luisa González in Sunday’s election, European Union election observers said Tuesday that the Sunday’s election was “conducted fairly and without major irregularities.”

Gabriel Mato, head of the EU Observer team, said he had heard claims of violations from Noboa, González and two other candidates, but saw now evidence of fraudulent activities during the election. “We heard the complaints through the media, not directly, but based on the observations of our team we see nothing to substantiate them,” he said.

The National Electoral Council says votes are still being counted and warned that some predictions are “premature and incorrect.”

“In our view, Ecuador continued its tradition of more than 30 years of hosting transparent and well-organized elections,” Mato said. “There were some technical difficulties, but these did not suggest irregularities that would affect the outcome of the vote.”

For the runoff election, Mato said the EU team recommends the National Electoral Council take measures to prevent the “mixing of government activity with the electoral campaign,” in apparent reference to Noboa’s pattern of campaigning by executive decree.

CNE warns of ‘premature’ Assembly projections
The National Electoral Council (CNE) warned Tuesday night that media predictions of the composition of the new National Assembly are “misleading and incorrect” and said that the distribution of seats will not be official until 100% of votes are counted.

On Tuesday, predictions by the media and political parties showed Revolución Ciudadana and the National Democratic Action party trading positions as having the largest Assembly delegations. “These projections, in some cases, are being presented as the final seat distribution in the Assembly and this is misleading and incorrect,” the CNE said. “Once we count every vote we apply the Webster method to determine the final seat allocation in the Assembly.”

The CNE also cautioned that news sources and political parties were confusing percentages of votes counted, with some claiming that 99% of the votes have been counted in Assembly races. “We conduct separate counting procedures for the presidential election and the National Assembly and many of the Assembly projections are based on incorrect percentages of votes counted.”

As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, several newspapers and online sources reported that Citizens Revolution would have 67 Assembly seats to 66 for ADN.

More than 1,000 Ecuadorians deported from the U.S.
The Foreign Ministry reports that 1,176 Ecuadorians have arrived on 11 flights from the United States since Washington, D.C. announced mass deportations of undocumented foreigners. The U.S. said it plans to deport at least 31,252 Ecuadorians.

The ministry said the rate of deportations has risen about 30% since the new government took office in the U.S., reporting that 2,123 Ecuadorians were deported from the U.S. in January and February 2024.

Country risk rises after election
After falling to 903 points last week, Ecuador’s economic country risk has risen to 1,162 following Sunday’s election. The country risk is a rating maintained by international credit rating agencies indicating the risk and uncertainty of investing in particular countries.

According to credit rating service Standard & Poors, the sudden surge in risk is based on the closer than expected outcome of the presidential election. “The markets expected President Daniel Noboa to win the election or have a substantial lead going into the runoff, and this did not happen,” S&P said in a statement. “With the election showing a dead heat between Noboa and the challenger Luisa González, the market is concerned about economic stability in Ecuador.”