Huge turnout and international news coverage of Cuenca protest march puts pressure on Noboa

The significance of Tuesday’s massive turnout for Cuenca’s “Great March for Water” could extend far beyond shutting down the Loma Larga gold mine. “This will have an impact far beyond Cuenca and could change the political landscape of the country,” Azuay Province Prefect Juan Cristóbal Lloret said Wednesday. “Groups opposed to government policies are paying close attention to what is happening in Cuenca.”

The massive size of Cuenca’s “March for Water” could change Ecuador’s political landscape, some say.

The march, which drew a crowd estimated at 100,000 or more, made headlines not only in Ecuador by around the world. Such mainstream media as the New York Times, the British Guardian, the Washington Post, CNN and the BBC reported it, calling it the largest single-day protest in Ecuador history.

“It is clear the government was surprised by the size of the crowd,” Lloret says. “After the government said it was turning over the Loma Larga decision to the local governments, the presidential press office said it doubted that more than a few thousand would march. You notice that Noboa has said nothing about it.”

According to Guayaquil newspaper El Universo, Noboa and his ministers were “stunned” by the size of the protest. “Following the suspension of the mining project, they believed the size of the turnout would be reduced,” wrote columnist Javier Sanchez. “They even thought the march might be cancelled. In fact, the opposite happened and the crowd was even larger than the sponsors predicted. The favorable international news coverage adds to the pressure.”

A possible result of the march and the government’s decision to end the diesel fuel subsidy is that Noboa loses his narrow majority in the National Assembly. On Wednesday, Pachakutik leader Cecilia Baltazar said she and five other party members are considering ending their support of Noboa’s ADN party. “We object to the total elimination of the diesel subsidy and we also share a common position against mining projects that damage our quality of life,” she said. “We were watching the events in Cuenca and we understand where the people stand on the issue of mining. The indigenous people have always opposed projects that pollute the water.”

Pachakutik support is critical for Noboa. The president’s three anti-crime bills, parts of which have been found unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court, passed the Assembly by a one to four vote margin. “Without the six Pachakutik votes, none of those would have passed,” says Sanchez.

He adds: “Without those votes, Noboa’s entire agenda would be in trouble.”

Of immediate concern, Sanchez says, are the developing protests against the end of the diesel subsidy. “It is too early to predict how widespread these will be — and the government appears to be making deals with the transport sector. We will know by the end of the month.”