Noboa’s National Democratic Action party is the big winner in the new National Assembly
For the first time in almost 20 years, the Citizens Revolution and its Correista predecessors will not be the largest voting bloc in Ecuador’s National Assembly. Although a final allocation will not be officially announced until 100% of votes are counted, President Daniel Noboa’s National Democratic Action (ADN) is guaranteed to have more seats than Citizens Revolution. Based on the distribution formula adopted in 2020, ADN will have 68 or 69 seats while Citizens Revolution will have 64.
The National Assembly
Seventy-six votes are required for a majority in the expanded 151-seat Assembly.
The indigenous Pachakutik party is expected to win seven or eight seats while the Social Christians will have three followed by Patriotic Society with two. Construye and Popular Unity will have one seat each as will three local parties.
It is expected that Noboa’s mother, ADN’s Annabella Azín, will be elected president when the new Assembly takes its seats in May.
According to attorney and political analyst Ricardo Noboa (no relation to the president), it will be difficult for the new Assembly to reach consensus. “At first glance, it looks like a formula for the legislative gridlock we have experienced in the past four years,” he says.
He adds: “Since both parties are short of a majority, they will need to form alliances with the 18 or 19 asambleistas from other movements. Due to its numerical advantage, this will be easier for ADN than for Citizens Revolution.”
The winner of the April 13 presidential runoff election will be the key to how the two blocs interact, Ricardo Noboa says. “This will make all the difference, of course,” he says. “Daniel Noboa is the reason ADN has become the dominant party. I hear some people say that the election has finally given Ecuador a two-party system, replacing the chaos of all the little parties, but if the president loses to Gonzalez in the runoff, it’s difficult to see the party holding together for more than one term.”
