Presidential race is a dead heat, analysts say

Less than a week before the presidential runoff election between President Daniel Noboa and Luisa González, most analysts say the race is too close to call. “It follows the pattern of the past three or four runoffs, with public sentiment being very difficult to read,” says Nivaldo Trujillo.

President Daniel Noboa

Trujillo, a political science lecturer at the University of Guayaquil, believes Noboa has made modest gains against González since late March. “Luisa came out of the February election with momentum but that has moderated and the recent trend appears to favor Noboa,” Trujillo says. “

A poll released Monday by CB Consultora Opinión Pública gives Noboa a small lead, 47.6% to 46%, over González, that is within the poll’s margin of error. The poll results were a 1.8% gain for Noboa over a poll conducted in mid-March.

Last week, two polls gave González a small lead. A Negocios & Estrategias survey showed González with a 51.4% to 48.6% advantage over Noboa, while a poll conducted by University of the Amazon professor Pedro Cango gives González a 51.9% to 48.1% lead. Like CB Consultora’s, the polls were within the margin of error.

In suevey comments, both CB Consultora and Negocios & Estrategias said Noboa was on an “upward trend.” CB Consultora attributes the trend to two factors: “strong negative feelings” toward former President Rafael Correa and the reemergence of the U.S. dollar as a camaign issue. “Noboa has taken advantage of González’s relationship with Correa, his support of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and his proposal for a digital, non-dollarized money system,” CB Consultora said.

Trujillo agrees González’s ties to Correa and the dollar have given Noboa an edge, but believes it is a small one. “Momentum leading up to a close election is fickle, more or less a yin and yang dynamic, and it could easily shift back in González’s favor in the days before the election.”