‘Why can’t I get a reliable weather forecast in Ecuador?’ Here are the reasons why

By Tom Blanchard

A common complaint of Ecuador expats and potential expats is the difficulty in finding accurate weather forecasts. This is especially frustrating lately as we desperately need rain to end the drought – and the blackouts and fires the drought is causing.

Internet weather sites, such as Weather.com, AccuWeather and Yahoo Weather, often carry the same report day after day, usually predicting rain, even during dry periods.

When will it rain?

Even Ecuador’s official weather service, which goes by the cumbersome name (in translation) of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, seems to get the forecast wrong as often as it gets it right. INAMHI — the service’s equally cumbersome acronym – has repeatedly predicted heavy rain in the last few weeks that has not materialized.

Those of us who live in Ecuador may have also noticed that there’s no news, sports, and weather on the local six o’clock TV news – there’s only news and sports. And, of course, there’s no Weather Channel, or a regional equivalent of it in the local cable TV lineup.

There’s a reason for all of this.

Predicting the weather on the equator, beyond a few hours in advance, is tricky and sometimes almost impossible. Weather in Ecuador – and also in Peru and Colombia — is determined by a number of factors, the most important being the equatorial or intertropical convergence zone, often referred to by sailors at sea as “the doldrums.” This is the area where northeast and southeast trade winds converge and often die out, preventing the organization of the strong weather fronts to which many expats were accustomed in the northern hemisphere and which allowed for relatively accurate forecasts. In other words, the convergence zone prevents the formation of strong low- and high-pressure zones that determine the weather.

Another factor resulting in poor weather forecasting during the current situation, is the Andes Mountain range. Although the Amazon region may experience heavy rainfall with an east to west flow of moisture, there is no assurance it will spill over the mountains into what is known as the inter-Andean valley, where Cuenca, Quito, Riobamba and Loja are located. The weather people can make an educated guess, but a 10,000-foot barrier can be hard to overcome.

As I look at the weather radar this morning, I see heavy rain approaching from the east and think that, maybe today, it will make it over the mountains. Maybe.
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Tom Blanchard is a retired meteorologist. He worked at the National Hurricane Center in Miami for 20 years before a career as at television weatherman in Oklahoma City and Boise, Idaho. He has lived in Cuenca for 11 years.