With less than two months until the election, polls show Noboa and González headed for a runoff

Ecuador appears headed for a repeat of the 2023 cross death election that pitted Daniel Noboa against Luisa González in a presidential runoff. According to the latest public and private polling results, Noboa and González command more than 60% support in the field of 16 candidates.

Citizens Revolution presidential candidate Luisa González

According to a Comunicaliza poll released Monday, Noboa leads González 32.6% to 29.9% while the other 14 candidates registered less than 11% support among them, only half-a-percent higher than the “no” vote total. The poll’s margin of error is 1.5%.

Four private polls commissioned by candidates show similar results.

Comunicaliza’s latest numbers reflect an increase in support for Noboa over the past six weeks. In early November, Noboa led González by less than one percent, 27.5% to 26.7%.

In the race for the National Assembly, Citizens Revolution polled highest with 24.6% support followed by Noboa’s National Democratic Action party at 22.1%. The Social Christians and former president Guillermo Lasso’s CREO party finished third and fourth.

In response to other questions in the poll, respondents said crime and security is the country’s biggest problem (25.2%), with the energy crisis second (22.3%). Among other top concerns were unemployment, health care, education and the economy.

“The polling results show a very polarized panorama between the top two presidential candidates and the rest of the field,” said Comunicaliza director Álvaro Marchante, noting that the disqualification of Jan Topic removed “the last element of drama” entering January’s campaign. “There was some speculation that Topic might overtake either Noboa or Luisa for second place, but this possibility is now off the table.”

Newspaper columnist and former Comunicaliza poll analyst Milton Dávalos said he was surprised by the most recent poll numbers in the presidential race. “Because of the electric blackouts and the communication problems surrounding the blackouts, I thought Noboa’s support would decline but, instead, it has increased,” according to Dávalos. “This is not only the case in the Comunicaliza poll but in three of the four private polls I have seen.”

Dávalos says that Noboa is “in a good position” going into the January campaign. “Based on the last two elections, we know that the Correista candidate needs a large lead over the second-place finisher in the first election — as much as 10% or 11% — to have a chance to win the runoff,” he says.