A divided indigenous movement, led by a weakened Conaie, will make negotiations more difficult

Although the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) announced Thursday that the national strike will continue until its demands are met, it is unclear how much authority Conaie carries in the indigenous community. It is also unclear if Conaie would have the authority to negotiate a settlement with the government when the time comes.

Strikers in Imbabura Province on Wednesday.

“This is a very different strike from 2019 and 2022,” says Ariruma Kowii, a professor at Ecuador Central University. “In those strikes, Conaie orchestrated and controlled the major strike activities and was able to bring the local organizations to the negotiation table at the end. Today, the leadership of Conaie is weaker and has less control over its member groups.”

According to Kowii, Conaie’s weakness was the reason local organizations are managing their own protests in the current strike. “When [Conaie president Marlon] Varga announced the strike, he claimed that giving more authority to local groups was based on ‘democratic principles’ but he really had no choice. He knew that Conaie would be unable to control the more militant groups.”

Conaie’s weakness is mostly the result of a bitter election campaign in which Vargas defeated former president Leonidas Iza, Kowii says. “Iza is more radical and still has a strong following among some Conaie members. Behind the scenes, he is urging his supporters to radicalize their protests, especially with roadblocks and disruptions of services in larger cities.”

In addition to ideological differences, Kowii points out that individual organizations have different agendas. While the indigenous movement is united in demanding the reinstatement of the diesel subsidy, other interests vary by region. “For example, the biggest issue for organizations in Cuenca and Azuay was stopping the Loma Larga gold mine,” he says. “With the help of the larger Cuencano community, they succeeded in this mission and forced the government to close the project. Since they are still celebrating their victory, they obviously are less inclined to be radicalized by broader strike issues.”

Ramiro Lopez, a retired Quito journalist, says it is possible that some indigenous organizations will refuse to negotiate with the government even if others do. “The more radical groups in Imbabura, Chimborazo and Cañar, the ones aligned with Iza, will have more rigid positions for a settlement and may be fighting other indigenous groups as well as the government.”

Lopez says what happened earlier this week in Imbabura Province illustrates the division. On Sunday the Federation of Kichwa Peoples of the Northern Sierra of Ecuador (FICI) announced it was willing to begin talks with the government, calling it a “gesture of good faith” for the purpose of securing peace. However, when FICI invited other groups to attend a meeting in Ibarra, no other groups showed up, and later called the president of FICI a “traitor” for attempting to organize the talks. “We can expect much more of such internal disagreement from a divided movement,” says Lopez.

For the country, Lopez says, the Conaie’s division means a less violent strike and less supply chain disruptions. “The number of protesters in the marches and at the roadblocks is much lower than in 2019 and 2022, so there will be less suffering by the general public, although locations such as Imbabura are the exception.”

“On the other hand,” he adds, “there is no clarity on how and when the strike will end.”