Noboa wants a new constitution but what are the chances he will get the changes he wants?

President Daniel Noboa has been clear that his top priority in the November 16 referendum election is passage of the question to create a constituent assembly to write a new constitution. What is less clear is exactly what he wants in a new constitution.

President Daniel Noboa during a radio interview last week.

Even if voters approve the constituent assembly question, constitutional law experts say it is far from certain Noboa will get what he wants or even if the proposed constitution will be accepted by the public. They point to Chile’s experience in 2023, where voters supported a constitutional rewrite but rejected it at the polls.

Although he provided few specifics, Noboa discussed a new constitution and some of his priorities during an interview Friday on Radio Democracia in Quito.

“If we move forward with a new document, there will be proposals to strengthen penal rules to make sure the public is better protected from criminals and criminal suspects,” Noboa said. “There will also be proposals to modify the judicial system to be more responsive to the needs of the public.”

When asked if he wanted to “weaken” the independence of the Constitutional Court, he said he would wait to see proposed changes before commenting. “Judicial organization and authority are a sensitive issues and I will defer to the assembly to see what they develop,” he said.

Although he said he wanted to make it easier to pursue mining and oil extraction projects, he wouldn’t say if he favors weaking public input on projects. He also refused to say if he would support changes to reduce the rights of nature, contained in the current constitution, or to put restrictions on the rights of indigenous groups living in the Amazon.

“In general, I would like to see a more favorable climate for investment in the country,” Noboa said. “This means removing procedural roadblocks and restrictions on business development. I believe prosperity and greater employment opportunities are being held back by language in the current constitution.”

On the subject of health care, Noboa said it may be necessary to “separate the medical and health functions” of the Social Security system from the pension fund. “The main responsibility of IESS is to pay pensions to retired people and nothing should interfere with this.” When the Radio Democracia interviewer pressed him on how a new IESS system would work, Noboa deferred, saying he needed to see plans “that have not yet been developed.”

At the conclusion of the interview, Noboa said his “biggest interest” was ensuring that the rights of the majority of Ecuadorians are respected and supported, adding that the current constitution offers “excessive protections for minorities and minority interests.”

Most constitutional law experts are skeptical of Noboa’s intentions for rewriting the constitution. “He continues to be vague on his intentions, being heavy on the propaganda but showing limited understanding of the law,” says conservative attorney and newspaper columnist Fabián Corral. “It is clear he considers the current constitution a product of Correismo, which is true, but I question whether we need to change the entire charter on this basis.”

Corral and others suggest that Noboa may underestimate the scope of a constitutional rewrite. “If voters approve this next month, we are beginning a two or two-and-a-half year process to write a new charter,” he says. “Frist, you have to select the constituent assembly, which will be a contentious process with no guarantee the members will reflect the president’s position, and then you get into the laborious process of writing the document. Once that’s complete, and you have a final draft of the new constitution, the people must approve it, and we saw two years ago what happened in Chile.”

Quito sociology professor Simón Ordóñez not only questions the need for a new constitution but says Noboa’s timing is bad. “From a purely political standpoint, this is very risky business for the president, given the crises the country faces. Who knows what the mood of the people will be in two or three years when a new constitution goes to the voters.”

According to Ordóñez, Noboa may be overestimating his popularity. “He believes he has a public mandate but his margin of success in both the last election and in the National Assembly is very slim. He is rolling the dice for a new constitution.”